Market Roundup
• UK Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Feb): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.8% previous
• UK Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Feb): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.8% previous
• UK Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Feb): 1.3%, 0.9% forecast, 1.1% previous
• EU GDP (QoQ) (Q4): 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
• EU GDP (YoY) (Q4): 1.2%, 1.3% forecast, 1.4% previous
• EU Employment Change (YoY) (Q4): 0.7%, 0.7% forecast, 0.6% previous
• EU Employment Overall (Q4): 1,72,571.6K, 1,72,516.6K forecast, 1,70,411.4K previous
• EU Employment Change (QoQ) (Q4): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
• Greek Quarterly Unemployment Rate (Q4): 8.3%, 8.2% previous
• Greek GDP (YoY) (Q4): 2.4%, 2.1% previous
• EU GDP (QoQ) (Q4): 0.80%, 0.70% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 13:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb): 58K forecast, 130K previous
• 13:30 US Unemployment Rate (Feb): 4.3% forecast, 4.3% previous
• 13:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Feb): 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
• 13:30 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan): -0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
• 13:30 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan): 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
• 13:30 US Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb): 65K forecast, 172K previous
• 13:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Feb): 3.7% forecast, 3.7% previous
• 13:30 US U6 Unemployment Rate (Feb): 8.0% previous
• 13:30 US Participation Rate (Feb): 62.5% previous
• 13:30 US Retail Control (MoM) (Jan): 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
• 13:30 US Average Weekly Hours (Feb): 34.3 forecast, 34.3 previous
• 13:30 US Government Payrolls (Feb): -42.0K previous
• 13:30 US Manufacturing Payrolls (Feb): 3K forecast, 5K previous
• 13:30 US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Jan): 0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous
• 15:00 Canada Ivey PMI (Feb): 51.1% forecast, 50.9% previous
• 15:00 US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Dec): 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 15:00 US Business Inventories (MoM) (Dec): 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
• 15:00 Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a (Feb): 47.0% previous
• 15:00 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Jan): 0.2% previous
• 18:00 US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: 407 previous
• 18:00 US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: 550 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Friday as escalating conflict in the Middle East drove demand for safe-haven assets.The euro and yen remained on the back foot as the crisis drove oil prices ever higher, spurring inflation risks in economies dependent on energy imports and upending policy expectations for the Federal Reserve and other central banks.Earlier hopes for a de-escalation of the Iran war gave way to fresh uncertainty and concerns about how long the conflict could drag on. Israel on Friday carried out heavy air strikes on Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut and started a "broad-scale" wave of attacks against infrastructure in Tehran, while Iran said it targeted the heart of Tel Aviv with missiles.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1688(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1739(Oct 16th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1589(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1476(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged lower as the escalating Iran conflict dampened risk sentiment and pushed investors toward safe-haven assets. Hopes of de-escalation faded as attacks continued and the crisis widened, increasing uncertainty over its duration.Rising oil prices have also intensified inflation concerns, particularly for energy-importing countries such as the UK, prompting markets to reassess interest-rate expectations. The Bank of England is now unlikely to cut rates at its meeting later this month.Traders are currently pricing in about a 65% chance of a rate cut by the end of the year, compared with expectations for two BoE cuts earlier this year at the end of February. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3403(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3459(Jan 2nd low).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3248(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3183(Dec 2nd low).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased on Friday as investors assessed the broader economic impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict. Easing safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar and a slight pullback in oil prices from recent highs supported risk-sensitive currencies such as the Aussie.The conflict intensified on Thursday after U.S. and Israeli jets struck targets across Iran, while Gulf cities faced renewed bombardment. Reports of attacks on oil tankers in Gulf waters and China’s move to curb fuel exports pushed crude prices up about $6 overnight.RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser is set to speak in New York, with markets watching his comments for clues on Australia’s interest-rate outlook and inflation risks.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7030(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7137(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6960(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6900(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Friday as Japanese yen weakened amid BoJ policy uncertainty and escalating Middle East conflict.The conflict escalated further on Thursday, with U.S. and Israeli jets striking targets across Iran and cities in the Gulf region coming under renewed bombardment as the war widened.Kazuo Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, warned that the Middle East conflict could hurt Japan’s economy and keep interest rates on hold for longer.The remarks highlight the challenge the BOJ faces in timing the next interest rate hike, as uncertainty over the Middle East conflict clouds the outlook for a fragile economy.Looking Ahead, Market participants awaiting Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, with expectations around +59K for February, following January’s stronger-than-expected +130K reading.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.29(Higher BB) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.72(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.44 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
Europe’s STOXX 600 struggled for direction on Friday as the Middle East conflict showed no signs of easing, putting the index on track for its worst week in nearly a year.
At GMT (13:20) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.56 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.58 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.66 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold edged higher on Friday on safe-haven demand amid escalating Middle East tensions, but remained on track for a weekly decline as inflation concerns reduced expectations for rate cuts.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $5,090.16 per ounce, as of 11:37 GMT. It was down 3.5% so far this week, snapping a four-week winning streak, as fading prospects of interest rate cuts and a volatile dollar weighed on bullion.
Crude oil was set on Friday for its strongest weekly gain since the volatility of spring 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, as the Middle East conflict kept shipping and energy exports through the vital Strait of Hormuz disrupted.
Brent crude futures have surged 23% this week, the largest rise since May 2020 following record OPEC+ output cuts, while West Texas Intermediate has climbed nearly 29%, its biggest weekly gain since April 2020.
