Market Roundup
• Australia Trade Balance (Jan): 2.631B, 3.780B forecast, 3.373B previous
• Australia Exports (MoM, Jan): -0.9%, 0.9% forecast, 0.9% previous
• Australia Imports (MoM, Jan): 0.8%, -1.8% forecast, -1.8% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•08:30 EU HCOB Eurozone Construction PMI (MoM) (Feb) 45.3 previous
•08:30 EU HCOB France Construction PMI (MoM) (Feb) 43.5 previous
•08:30 HCOB Germany Construction PMI (Feb) 44.7 previous
•08:30 HCOB HCOB Italy Construction PMI (MoM) (Feb) 47.7 previous
•09:30 UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Feb) 47.0 forecast, 46.4 previous
•10:00 EU Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan) 1.7% forecast,1.3% previous
•10:00 Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)0.3% forecast,-0.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 10:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Thursday as an escalating Middle East conflict sent oil prices sharply higher and revived inflation worries. The war widened sharply on Wednesday after a U.S. submarine sank an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka, killing at least 80 people, and NATO air defences destroyed an Iranian ballistic missile fired towards Turkey. The escalation came as the son of Iran's slain supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei emerged as a frontrunner to succeed him, suggesting Tehran was not about to buckle under pressure, five days after the U.S. and Israel launched a military campaign that has killed hundreds and convulsed global markets. Investors now await the weekly U.S. jobless claims data, due later in the day, and the U.S. employment report for February on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1688(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1739(Oct 16th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1589(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1476(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound declined on Thursday as the U.S. dollar strengthened, while investors closely monitored the escalating Middle East conflict. The U.S.–Iran war expanded following reports of military actions that heightened geopolitical tensions. Rising energy prices due to the conflict have increased inflation risks, potentially impacting major central banks’ rate outlooks.Markets now price only a 34% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June, down from about 46% a week earlier, partly supported by stronger U.S. economic data. Expectations for Bank of England rate cuts have also been reduced, while traders have increased bets that the European Central Bank may raise rates later this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3403(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3459(Jan 2nd low).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3248(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3183(Dec 2nd low).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased as investors assessed the impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict. The U.S.–Iran war expanded following reports of military actions that heightened geopolitical tensions.. The U.S. is trying to address energy supply risks amid rising Iran tensions, which could affect global markets. Australian household spending rose only 0.3% in January, following a 0.5% decline in the previous month, signaling weaker consumer demand. However, annual spending growth rose to 2.6%, the fastest pace since early 2023.Markets now see only a 20% chance of an RBA rate hike at the March 17 meeting, but fully price a move to 4.10% by May from the current 3.85% cash rate. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7030(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7137(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6960(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6900(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Thursday as the fallout from war in the Middle East roiled global markets and kept sentiment fragile. Markets remained on edge as the US–Israel war with Iran entered its sixth day after Iran launched a major missile barrage at Israel, forcing millions into bomb shelters amid ongoing conflict escalation.The spike in energy prices from the Middle East conflict has stoked inflation fears, potentially affecting rate outlooks for major central banks, including the Federal Reserve.Meanwhile, Donald Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, moving closer to appointing a rate-cut supportive central bank leadership.Investors await United States weekly jobless claims data later in the day and the February employment report on Friday.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.29(Higher BB) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.72(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.44 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
Asian shares rose and U.S. Treasuries fell as risk appetite tentatively recovered after being hit by the escalating Middle East war.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 1.72% , South Korea’s KOSPI was down at 9.63 %, China A50 was up at 0.96 %
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Thursday as the widening Middle East conflict drove investors towards the safe-haven asset, while a rebound in the dollar limited gains.
Spot gold was up 0.4% at $5,153.11 per ounce, as of 0638 GMT. U.S. gold futures for April delivery were up 0.5% at $5,161.30.
Oil prices surged more than 3% on Thursday, extending a rally as the escalating U.S.-Israeli war with Iran raised fears of prolonged disruptions to vital Middle East oil and gas supplies.
Brent crude advanced $2.44, or 3%, to $83.84 per barrel by 0722 GMT, a fifth session of gains. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.44, or 3.27%, to $77.10.
