Market Roundup
• U.K. GDP (MoM) (Jan): 0.0%, 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous.
• U.K. Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jan): 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, -0.5% previous.
• U.K. Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan): -0.1%, 0.3% forecast, -0.9% previous.
• U.K. Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Jan): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous.
• U.K. Trade Balance (Jan): -14.45B, -22.20B forecast, -22.72B previous.
• U.K. Trade Balance Non-EU (Jan): -3.46B, previous -10.99B.
• Germany WPI (YoY) (Feb): 1.2%, 1.2% previous.
• Germany WPI (MoM) (Feb): 0.6%, 0.3% forecast, 0.9% previous.
• U.K. Construction Output (MoM) (Jan): 0.2%, 0.0% forecast, -0.5% previous.
• U.K. Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Jan): 1.3%, 1.5% forecast, 0.5% previous.
• U.K. Construction Output (YoY) (Jan): -0.2%, -0.1% forecast, -0.3% previous.
• U.K. Industrial Production (YoY) (Jan): 0.4%, 0.6% forecast, 0.5% previous.
• U.K. GDP (YoY) (Jan): 0.8%, 0.9% forecast, 0.7% previous.
• U.K. Index of Services (Jan): 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous.
•Euro Area Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan): -1.5%, 0.6% forecast, -0.6% previous.
•Euro Area Industrial Production (YoY) (Jan): -1.2%, 1.4% forecast, 2.2% previous.
•U.S. GDP (QoQ) (Q4): 0.7%, 1.4% forecast, 4.4% previous.
•U.S. Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jan): 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous.
•U.S. Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jan): 3.1%, 3.1% forecast, 3.0% previous.
•Canada Employment Change (Feb): -83.9K, 10.3K forecast, -24.8K previous.
•Canada Unemployment Rate (Feb): 6.7%, 6.6% forecast, 6.5% previous.
•U.S. Core PCE Prices (Q4): 2.70%, 2.70% forecast, 2.90% previous.
•U.S. GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4): 3.8%, 3.7% forecast, 3.7% previous.
•U.S. Personal Spending (MoM) (Jan): 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous.
•U.S. PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jan): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous.
•U.S. PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jan): 2.8%, 2.9% forecast, 2.9% previous.
•U.S. Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jan): 0.0%, 1.1% forecast, -0.9% previous.
•U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jan): 0.4%, 0.5% forecast, 1.3% previous.
•Canada Part-Time Employment Change (Feb): 24.5K, previous -69.7K.
•Canada Avg Hourly Wages Permanent Employees (Feb): 4.2%, previous 3.3%.
•Canada Capacity Utilization Rate (Q4): 78.5%, 78.4% forecast, 78.9% previous.
•Canada Full-Time Employment Change (Feb): -108.4K, previous 44.9K.
•Canada Participation Rate (Feb): 64.9%, previous 65.0%.
•Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Jan): -3.0%, -3.3% forecast, 0.4% previous.
•U.S. GDP Sales (Q4): 0.4%, 1.2% forecast, 4.5% previous.
•U.S. Real Consumer Spending (Q4): 2.0%, 2.4% forecast, 3.5% previous.
•U.S. PCE Prices (Q4): 2.9%, 2.9% forecast, 2.8% previous.
•U.S. Personal Income (MoM) (Jan): 0.4%, 0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous.
•U.S. Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Jan): 0.1%, previous 0.1%.
•U.S. Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Air (MoM) (Jan): 0.0%, 0.5% forecast, 0.6% previous.
•U.S. Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Jan): 0.5%, previous -1.9%.
•U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (Jan): 6.946M, 6.760M forecast, 6.550M previous.
•U.S. Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Mar): 3.2%, 3.4% forecast, 3.3% previous.
•U.S. Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Mar): 3.4%, 3.6% forecast, 3.4% previous.
•U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar): 55.5, 55.0 forecast, 56.6 previous.
•U.S. Michigan Consumer Expectations (Mar): 54.1, 54.5 forecast, 56.6 previous.
•U.S. Michigan Current Conditions (Mar): 57.8, 54.9 forecast, 56.6 previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•15:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) 2.7% forecast,2.7% previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 411 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 551 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro slipped lower on Friday as the war in the Middle East drove investors towards safety of dollar. A sharp and prolonged rise in oil prices would severely hurt the economies of Japan and the euro area, which are heavily reliant on crude imports, while the United States would be relatively insulated, having been a net crude exporter for almost a decade.Investors await the European Central Bank policy meeting next Thursday, while traders bet that surging oil prices could push the central bank to hike rates this year.Economists said a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be needed to justify ECB monetary tightening to counter inflation.The euro hit its lowest level since August at $1.1438 , and was last down 0.38% at $1.1477.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1521(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1621(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1435(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1403(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped lower against dollar on Friday as soft UK GDP data weighed on Pound. Britain's economy stagnated unexpectedly in January after weak growth in the preceding months, according to official data, which showed a loss of momentum even before the war in Iran that is likely to be a further drag.Gross domestic product has been essentially flat since June, the figures from the Office for National Statistics showed on Friday, despite promises by Prime Minister Keir Starmer and finance minister Rachel Reeves to speed up the economy.GDP showed zero growth in January, dashing the median prediction in a Reuters poll of economists for a 0.2% month-on-month increase. In the three months to January it rose by 0.2%, the ONS said, against expectations for a 0.3% increase in the Reuters poll. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3372(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3417(50%fib)).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3286(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3240(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased on Friday as escalating tensions in the Middle East dampened investor sentiment and boosted risk aversion. Markets remained on edge after Iran intensified attacks and vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, heightening concerns over global oil supply.Brent Crude surged above $100 a barrel, marking its first close above that level since August 29, 2022, amid rising geopolitical tensions.Investors are also focused on the upcoming policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia on March 16–17, where markets expect a 25-basis-point rate hike to 4.10%. Meanwhile, attention is on the U.S. Q4 GDP update and January Core PCE data, with Reuters polls forecasting a 0.4% month-on-month rise that could influence policy expectations at the Federal Reserve. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7092(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7139(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7038(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6981(50%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower on Friday as supply shocks from the Middle East conflict raised the risk of higher inflation in Japan, potentially accelerating the tightening path of the Bank of Japan and leaving open the possibility of another rate hike as early as April.The conflict, now less than two weeks old, has created global economic uncertainty, leaving policymakers unsure whether to maintain restrictive policies or shift toward more accommodative settings.In Japan, the BOJ’s growing focus on inflation risks signals a shift from its traditional stance of supporting growth through ultra-low borrowing costs, reflecting changing price dynamics.However, the conflict involving Iran could also strengthen the case for caution, with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi reportedly expressing reservations about further increases in borrowing costs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.68(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.72(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.44 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European shares extended losses on Friday and were set for a second straight weekly decline as escalating conflict in the Middle East and rising inflation concerns dampened investor risk appetite.
At GMT (13:20) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.07 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.26 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.19 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices firmed on Friday but were on track for a second consecutive weekly decline, with inflation worries driven by the Iran war weighing on rate‑cut expectations.
Spot gold gained 0.8% at $5,118.39 per ounce, by 8:52 a.m. ET (1252 GMT), but was down 1% for the week so far. U.S. gold futures for April delivery steadied at $5,124.70.
Oil prices dipped on Friday after an Indian tanker exited the Strait of Hormuz and the United States proposed measures to ease supply concerns, though prices remained on track for weekly gains amid ongoing disruptions from the Middle East conflict.
Brent Crude futures for May fell 92 cents, or 0.9%, to $99.54 a barrel at 1234 GMT, but remained on track for an 8% weekly gain. West Texas Intermediate Crude for April dropped $1.64, or 1.7%, to $94.09 a barrel, though it was still set for a 4% rise for the week.
