Dollar Hits 8-Week Low Against Yen Amid Trade War Concerns and Rate Speculations

The U.S. dollar slumped to an eight-week low against the yen and hovered near a one-month low versus the British pound as trade war fears eased. Investors are reassessing the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook while the Bank of Japan signals further rate hikes.

By 0140 GMT, the dollar dropped 0.5% to 151.81 yen, extending Wednesday’s 1.1% decline. The yen strengthened following strong wage data and BOJ board member Naoki Tamura’s remarks that rates must rise to at least 1% by late 2025. Markets now expect a quarter-point BOJ hike by September with a 94.8% probability.

Sterling held firm at $1.2509, after touching $1.2550, its highest since January 7, despite a widely anticipated Bank of England rate cut. Market-implied odds for an immediate BoE rate reduction stand at 92%.

The euro remained steady at $1.0401, after a modest 0.2% gain on Wednesday. The dollar index stood at 107.57, near its overnight low of 107.29, after retreating from a three-week peak of 109.88 earlier in the week. U.S. trade tensions eased after last-minute tariff reprieves for Mexico and Canada, although Washington imposed 10% tariffs on China.

The offshore yuan edged up to 7.2775 per dollar, while the Canadian dollar steadied at C$1.4321, near its highest level since December 17. The Mexican peso held firm at 20.5789 per dollar.

Market focus now shifts to Friday’s U.S. payroll report. Traders have priced in a full quarter-point Fed cut by July and 46.3 basis points of easing by December, according to LSEG data. However, diminishing trade-related inflation risks could allow the Fed more policy flexibility.