Market Roundup
• French 12-Month BTF Auction 0.453% ,0.457% previous
• French 3-Month BTF Auction 0.001%, 0.002% previous
• French 6-Month BTF Auction 0.180%, 0.186% previous
• Jul US Manufacturing PMI 52.2,52.3 forecast, 52.7 previous
• US Jul ISM Manufacturing PMI 52.8,52.0 forecast, 53.0 previous
•US Jul ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 48.0,49.2 previous
•US Jul ISM Manufacturing Employment 49.9, 47.3 previous
•US Jun Construction Spending (MoM) -1.1%,0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
•US Jul SM Manufacturing Prices 60.0, 74.3 forecast, 78.5 previous
•US 3-Month Bill Auction 2.490% l2.520% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•01:15 Australia Jun Building Approvals (MoM) 5.0% forecast,9.9% previous
•01:15 Australia Home Loans (MoM) 2.1% previous
•01:15 Australia Invest Housing Finance (MoM) 0.9% previous
•04:30 Australia Aug RBA Interest Rate Decision 1.85% forecast, 1.35% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
• 04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Monday as dollar weakened on bets the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its interest rates hikes. U.S. manufacturing activity, in particular, slowed less than expected, lending weight to bets that the Federal Reserve might not be more aggressive than anticipated at its September meeting, denting the dollar. Traders currently price about 31% probability that the U.S.Fed would keep its current 75 basis-point pace of rate hikes at its next meeting in September, with 69% odds for a smaller half-point increase. The big economic focus for this week will be the monthly U.S. jobs report on Friday. The euro benefited from the general dollar weakness, with the single currency rising 0.3% to $1.0253, continuing its consolidation near the middle of its range over the past week and a half. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0262(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0356(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0204(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0102(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose towards a one-month high on Monday as an upbeat mood on broader financial markets helped the British pound while traders prepared for a Bank of England policy meeting this week. Investors have shifted to pricing in an 80% chance of a 50 basis point (bps) hike from the BoE, which will announce its decision on Thursday, as policymakers globally accelerate the pace of rate rises to fight soaring inflation. The pound was little moved by survey data on Monday showing British manufacturing output and new orders declined in July at the fastest rate since May 2020, with expectations for a slowing economy priced in by many traders. Sterling was 0.2% higher against the dollar at $1.2270. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2284(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2331(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2168(38.2%fib),a break below could take the pair towards 1.2058(11DMA).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar declined against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as economic data from the U.S., Europe and China showed demand weakening under inflation pressures. Factories across the United States, Europe and Asia struggled in July as flagging global demand and China's COVID-19 restrictions slowed production, surveys showed.U.S. manufacturing activity, in particular, slowed less than expected, lending weight to bets that the Federal Reserve might not be more aggressive than anticipated at its September meeting. Crude prices headed lower as global factory data weighed on the demand outlook, and as market participants braced for this week's meeting of OPEC and other oil producers concerning world crude supply. The Canadian dollar was trading down 0.03 at 1.2844 to the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2868 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2929 (21DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2819 (5 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2719 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar sank to a fresh six-week low to the yen on Monday as investors weighed the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates as aggressively as some had expected. The U.S. dollar index was volatile after data showed U.S. manufacturing activity slowed less than expected in July. But a key report for investors this week will be the U.S. monthly jobs report on Friday.The dollar sank to its lowest level versus the yen since mid-June, and was down from a late 1998 peak of nearly 140 yen which it hit last month. The dollar was last down at 130.88. Currency investors were also watching news on U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's expected visit to Taiwan. Pelosi was set to visit Taiwan on Tuesday. Strong resistance can be seen at 133.07 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 133.40(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 130.60 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 129.80 (June 3rd low).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Monday on fears of a global economic slowdown fanned by disappointing Chinese economic data and figures showing contraction in euro zone manufacturing activity. y.
The UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.14 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.03 percent, and France’s CAC finished the down by 0.18 percent.
Wall Street ended lower after a choppy session on Monday, with declines in Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) and other energy companies weighing against gains in Boeing (BA.N) as investors digested the U.S. stock market's biggest monthly gains in two years.
Dow Jones was down by 0.14 percent, S&P 500 was down 0.27 percent, Nasdaq was down by 0.18 percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields slid on Monday in thin, choppy trading, with the benchmark 10-year yield hitting a four-month low, as manufacturing and construction data pointed to a slowdown that could prompt the Federal Reserve to slow its interest rate increases.
The benchmark U.S. 10-year yield fell 4 bps to 2.5983% US10YT=RR after earlier dropping to 2.586%, the lowest since early April. Since hitting an 11-year high of 3.4980% in mid-June, the 10-year yield has declined by more than 90 bps.
Commodities Recap
Gold neared a one-month high on Monday on the back of a decline in the U.S. dollar, with investors awaiting economic data that could influence the path of Federal Reserve policy tightening.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,768.44 per ounce by 2:31 p.m. EDT (1831 GMT), having earlier hit its highest since July 5 at $1,774.95.U.S. gold futures settled 0.3% higher at $1,787.70.
Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session, as investors worried about global oil demand following weak manufacturing data in several countries.
Brent crude futures fell 29 cents to $99.74 a barrel by 0002 GMT, with WTI crude futures down 22 cents at $93.67 a barrel.
