Transitory weakness only in the US
May 03, 2015 20:44 pm UTC| Commentary
Transitory weakness only in the USPort strikes, poor weather and front-load negatives (but back-loaded positive) from the oil price slump all contributed to a disappointing Q1 GDP report.Fear is that the something deeper...
Norges Bank likely to keep its policy rate unchanged
May 01, 2015 19:32 pm UTC| Commentary
The improvement in the growth outlook due to the rebound in oil prices along with the Norges Banks focus on financial stability are likely to stay its hand at this meeting.However, the probability of policy easing later...
China April trade and CPI data to have indirect but nonetheless important policy implications
May 01, 2015 19:08 pm UTC| Commentary
Two data releases in China, April trade data (Thursday) and CPI (Friday) have indirect but nonetheless important policy implications next week.April trade data on Thursday should bounce back after a terrible showing in...
RBA May 5th meeting may garner extra attention next week
May 01, 2015 18:55 pm UTC| Commentary
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)s May 5th meeting may garner extra attention next week, with markets continually positioning for rate cuts. At the April 7th meeting, futures had priced in a 75% chance of a cut, and yet...
China’s trade surplus probably rebounded strongly in April
May 01, 2015 17:37 pm UTC| Commentary
China HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI (02.45 BST, Monday) fell from 49.6 to 49.2 in April, according to the flash estimate. This suggests that seasonal effects were not the sole cause of the recent weakness. Although the...
US labour market data to steady nerves
May 01, 2015 17:14 pm UTC| Commentary
US has seen a steady run of downbeat releases since the turn of the year, culminating in this weeks 0.2% (saar) Q1 GDP print. Some of this softness reflected poor weather and strike activity. Like the FOMC, Lloyds Bank...
Stronger dollar means US manufacturing will remain muted
May 01, 2015 16:48 pm UTC| Commentary
Although it was unchanged at 51.5 in April, the ISM manufacturing index is still at a level consistent with GDP growth of nearly 2% annualised. Given the extent of the dollars appreciation over the past 12 months, the...