Still no clear trend in German factory orders

May 04, 2015 09:00 am UTC| Commentary

In March a bounce is expected in German factory orders of 0.8% mom, following a weaker than expected outcome in February(-0.9% mom). While foreign orders should recover more strongly (by around 1.1% mom), domestic orders...

US trade deficit to widen in March as port shutdown effects are reversed

May 04, 2015 08:56 am UTC| Commentary

The US trade deficit narrowed considerably in February - from $42.7bn to $35.4bn - and this will be mostly reversed in March. The deficit has been significantly impacted by the West Coast ports shutdown, which probably...

Australia's hot housing market suggests caution

May 04, 2015 06:54 am UTC| Commentary

The state of Australias housing market is likely to be one argument against further policy easing. Firstly, residential property prices continue to rise strongly - even if not quite at the pace seen in early 2014 when the...

China's money supply growth may have rebounded on recent RRR cuts

May 04, 2015 05:55 am UTC| Commentary

The Peoples Bank of China cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50bps in February and by another 100bps in April, to tackle the liquidity shortage caused by large capital outflows. The RRR cuts have allowed commercial...

China April retail sales likely improved partly due to an uptick in inflation

May 04, 2015 05:52 am UTC| Commentary

Chinas retail sales growth dropped to 10.2% y/y in March, the lowest level in the past year. Given that employment remains stable and disposable income is rising faster than GDP, the March data could be an outlier caused...

China's industrial production growth likely softened further from Q1 levels

May 04, 2015 05:49 am UTC| Commentary

The HSBC PMI indicates that production expanded at a slower pace m/m in April. The official manufacturing PMI production index increased 0.5ppt to 52.6, suggesting faster expansion m/m. The two PMIs diverged for the second...

China's inflation likely edged up in April but remained subdued

May 04, 2015 05:47 am UTC| Commentary

Chinas CPI inflation to have inched up to 1.6% y/y from 1.4% in March on a lower base last year. Food prices likely dropped 0.5% m/m in April based on interim data from the Ministry of Commerce and National Bureau of...