US Inflation continues to drift higher in December

Jan 20, 2016 17:47 pm UTC| Commentary

Consumer prices were down slightly in December (-0.1% m/m), as falling energy prices continued to weigh on the headline. As expected, core CPI (excluding food and energy) was stronger, but still only up a tame 0.1% on the...

US housing starts ease slightly in December, but the outlook remains favorable

Jan 20, 2016 17:40 pm UTC| Commentary Real Estate

The pace of homebuilding moderated slightly in December, with housing starts declining by 30k units (annualized) to 1,149k. The headline number came in considerably weaker than market expectations, which called for a...

Currency War Series

A second rate cut from Bank Indonesia likely in March

Jan 20, 2016 17:09 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Bank Indonesia (BI) cut its policy rate by 25bp to 7.25% on 14 January, as widely expected. Earlier markets expected BI to cut in February, given the governors recent concern over financial volatility. But renewed downward...

Solid US labor markets data suggests slowdown to a short-lived

Jan 20, 2016 16:37 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

Labor market activity is a coincident indicator with GDP growth. Historical evidence shows that declining employment growth and a stable or rising unemployment rate has pre-dated every US recession since 1960. For now,...

CFTC data shows JPY longs in positive ground for the first time since October 2012

Jan 20, 2016 16:01 pm UTC| Commentary

CFTC Speculators FX Positioning as at 12 January 2016 shows JPY longs in positive ground for the first time since October 2012 possibly on rising safe haven demand. A sharp drop was seen in the level of EUR shorts,...

Currency War Series

A dovish BoK tilt adds downward bias for KRW

Jan 20, 2016 15:26 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The Bank of Korea held the policy rate at 1.5% in January, as expected and revised lower the official growth and inflation forecasts for 2016 to 3% (from 3.2%) and 1.4% (1.7%), respectively. The statement that followed had...

Global fixed income markets supported by sell-off in risky assets

Jan 20, 2016 15:06 pm UTC| Commentary

Sell-off in risky assets prompted by China crisis has been a supportive factor for global fixed income markets. However, the impact on global government bond markets has been smaller than anticipated. Eroding Chinese...