A 25bp cut likely from RBI

Sep 28, 2015 07:48 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Now that the probability of a Fed hike has shifted to December, the RBI is in a much better position to implement a cut. The other big concern is the progress of monsoon. Despite plentiful rainfall in June, the overall...

BCB maintaining rates at 14.25% looks doubtful?

Sep 28, 2015 07:28 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Brazils FX reserve data released on Friday night revealed that BCB (Banco Central do Brasil) did not in fact intervene on Thursday to support BRL as many originally assumed. Verbal intervention alone was enough to bring...

RBI to cut rates by 25bp on Tuesday

Sep 27, 2015 22:44 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

For central banks, managing the different aspects of the leverage cycle is no easy feat. On the one hand, slowing economic momentum argues in favour of further easing. On the other hand, such moves could trigger additional...

US shutdown and debt ceiling issues could derail the Fed

Sep 27, 2015 22:17 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The current US budget expires on 30 September and three possible scenarios loom. In the best case, a new budget is agreed running until 30 September 2015. More likely, however, is that a continuing resolution will be...

Euro area data this week to highlight the problem faced by the ECB

Sep 27, 2015 20:43 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Euro area data this week are likely to highlight the problem faced by the ECB. The economic activity is not high enough to generate sufficient inflation pressure for it to achieve its price stability objective. Consensus...

Yellen sets the record straight

Sep 26, 2015 07:37 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The Fed took a pass on raising rates last week, citing concern that recent global and financial developments would restrain activity and put further downward pressure on inflation. At the same time, its updated projections...

The Fed's outlook for growth through the rest of the year is pessimistic, dollar drag likely

Sep 25, 2015 15:25 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The latest Fed projection for 2015 4Q YoY GDP growth was a surprisingly low 2.1%. Given what we know about growth in the first and second quarter of this year, we can back out the implied average growth rate for the second...