BCB likely to go for a 50bp rate cut in 2016

Sep 30, 2015 03:40 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

There has been no substantial change in the macro economy since earlier this month. However, the sharp deterioration in financial conditions, amid mounting domestic political and legislative concerns and the poor...

Reserve Bank of India surprises with a 50bps cut

Sep 30, 2015 02:15 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) surprisedwith a 50bps cut in the Repo rate to 6.75% on Tuesday vs expectations of a 25bps reduction. This bunched-up move was likely driven by three reasons: a) comfort with the evolving...

More QE not as simple as it sounds for ECB

Sep 29, 2015 12:31 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

In relative terms, the ECBs current quantitative easing programme appears modest. Whilst the BoJs total asset purchases equate to 64% of GDP, and the Feds 25%, current asset purchases in the Eurozone amount to around 11%...

Weak pass-through of RBI policy rate cut remains a concern

Sep 29, 2015 04:52 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The pass-through of RBI policy rate cuts to bank lending rates remains fairly weak. So far, the average pass-through has been barely 30bp in response to 75bp of rate cuts by the RBI. Recently, HDFC Bank announced an...

Chinese Reminbi regime change, US fiscal standoff

Sep 29, 2015 03:42 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

There are two specific political/policy uncertainties which could serve as another deterrent for the Fed, even if the data evolves as expected. In China, the uncertainty around the RMB is an important risk factor. PBoC is...

China's growth outlook likely supports Fed 's December lift-off

Sep 29, 2015 03:28 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

When the reliability of Chinese indicators is qustioned to Fed, a 2013 Economic Letter from the San Francisco Fed1 compared the official GDP data with several alternative indicators constructed from high-frequency data...

Reserve bank of India to cut policy rate by 25bp

Sep 28, 2015 21:24 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

With the US Fed deciding to remain on hold, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) now has a window of opportunity to ease its policy rate a final time in 2015 before likely opting for a pause. A cut was expected at the December...