Fed Hike Aftermath Series

US NFP, manufacturing PMI and job claims likely to post positive numbers that target Fed’s normalization cycle in 2016

Jan 04, 2016 13:51 pm UTC| Insights & Views Central Banks

Persistent growth in job market to support the USD and Fed tightening: The USD to trip up on support on Fridays NFP report. Average job creation of 150k or more during the next few employment reports should be...

ECB’s B/S numbers despite German members’ denials to prop-up EURO while Fed’s hiking in 2016 likely to trim EUR/USD

Jan 04, 2016 11:41 am UTC| Insights & Views Central Banks

Last month of 2015, the ECB has not delivered what streets expected (not a full depo cut we had in mind i.e. -10bps versus forecasts of -20bps) but the extended QE programme we were looking for (now due to run at least...

Currency War Series

BoK likely to stay accomodative in 2016 on softness in trade and production

Jan 04, 2016 03:12 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Korean exports dropped by 13.8% in December, which came in way below than consensus expectations to drop by 11.7%, following one time vessel delivery in November. This data marked weakest annual performance of exports...

Fed Hike Aftermath Series

No signs of relief to Fed wondering if they might have jumped the gun in December

Jan 04, 2016 02:55 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks Economy

The data surely arent bringing sighs of relief to any Fed officials wondering if they might have jumped the gun in December. 3Q GDP growth had already dropped to 2% (QoQ, saar) before they pulled the trigger and the higher...

Currency War Series

Low inflation to encourage expectations of further ECB action

Jan 03, 2016 21:31 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Euro area headline and core December inflation (Tuesday) will be the focus for the EUR, both are expected to increase slightly, to 0.4% y/y (last: 0.2%) and 1.0% y/y (last: 0.9%), respectively, but remain well short of the...

Currency War Series

Chile's central bank likely to hike at least additional 50bp before peso stabilizes

Dec 31, 2015 11:10 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Chiles central bank appears to be in a tightening cycle. Despite high headline inflation and waning credibility. The local swap market moved to pricing 2y headline inflation from last years 1.9% to 3.1% now. The...

Currency War Series

Riksbank standing pat despite SEK appreciation – gains seem fragile in Q1 2016

Dec 31, 2015 09:34 am UTC| Insights & Views Central Banks

Swedish Krona has traded sturdily during November and early- December, gaining against almost all G10 currencies. Despite SEK strength, the Riksbank left rates unchanged at the December 15 meeting and also left its...