Currency War Series

BoK likely to deliver another 25bp rate cut in Q1 2016

Jan 05, 2016 04:32 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Korean exports are still accelerating and the underlying trend of challenging external environment likely extending in 2016, the softness in external oriented sectors will keep Bank of Korea accomodative. We maintain...

Renminbi Series

China Crisis Series

China’s onshore/offshore interest rate spreads looking stretched

Jan 05, 2016 03:18 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Risk aversion gripped Chinese markets yesterday with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index down by almost 7% (trading in Chinese stock markets was halted). Significant uncertainties on the Chinese economy remain as PMI...

Currency War Series

Riksbank ready for FX-action

Jan 04, 2016 21:58 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

In a press release today, the Riksbank announced that it has taken the decision required to be able to instantly intervene on the foreign exchange market if necessary, as a complementary monetary policy measure. In...

Fed Hike Aftermath Series

US NFP, manufacturing PMI and job claims likely to post positive numbers that target Fed’s normalization cycle in 2016

Jan 04, 2016 13:51 pm UTC| Insights & Views Central Banks

Persistent growth in job market to support the USD and Fed tightening: The USD to trip up on support on Fridays NFP report. Average job creation of 150k or more during the next few employment reports should be...

ECB’s B/S numbers despite German members’ denials to prop-up EURO while Fed’s hiking in 2016 likely to trim EUR/USD

Jan 04, 2016 11:41 am UTC| Insights & Views Central Banks

Last month of 2015, the ECB has not delivered what streets expected (not a full depo cut we had in mind i.e. -10bps versus forecasts of -20bps) but the extended QE programme we were looking for (now due to run at least...

Currency War Series

BoK likely to stay accomodative in 2016 on softness in trade and production

Jan 04, 2016 03:12 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Korean exports dropped by 13.8% in December, which came in way below than consensus expectations to drop by 11.7%, following one time vessel delivery in November. This data marked weakest annual performance of exports...

Fed Hike Aftermath Series

No signs of relief to Fed wondering if they might have jumped the gun in December

Jan 04, 2016 02:55 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks Economy

The data surely arent bringing sighs of relief to any Fed officials wondering if they might have jumped the gun in December. 3Q GDP growth had already dropped to 2% (QoQ, saar) before they pulled the trigger and the higher...