Currency War Series

Riksbank rate cut likely in H1 2016

Jan 11, 2016 04:57 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Currently SEK is slightly stronger than the Riksbanks forecast. This is the main reason that FX intervention is expecting to bolster the rise in Inflation. There are two possibilities that Riksbank may undertake....

Currency War Series

Timing not right for a rate cut in Indonesia

Jan 11, 2016 02:39 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Bank Indonesia begins its 2-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. The 2-day monthly meeting is a new format that the central bank adopts starting this month. There is definitely plenty to ponder this month, given how...

Currency War Series

ECB minutes and data to shed further light on prospects of extra easing

Jan 08, 2016 19:15 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Decembers additional stimulus from the ECB fell short of market expectations, and it is not clear whether President Draghi wanted stronger action but was not able to muster sufficient support. The meeting minutes (Thu)...

Currency War Series

Russia's CBR rate cuts likely delayed to March 2016

Jan 08, 2016 16:34 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Russias inflation is edging lower on account of base effects, but the inflation trend is nowhere near the CBR target of 4%. The CBR will likely remains on hold at its next MPC meeting on 31 January, but as base effects...

Renminbi Series

Currency War Series

PBoC unlikely to have specific target levels for USD/CNY or USD/CNH

Jan 08, 2016 15:42 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The PBoC has been guiding the Yuan lower for the past nine days. There is definitely no basis for the RMB to devalue continuously and going forward the RMB exchange rate regime will continue to be based on market supply...

Currency War Series

Nordic central banks to continue with low interest rates regime

Jan 08, 2016 14:33 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Just as there are differences in their economic outlooks, interest-rate projections also vary across the Nordic countries. Denmark appears to be on track for a minor unilateral rate hike from its central bank (Danmarks...

Fundamental Evaluation Series

G10 FX high correlation to policy divergence makes policy setting difficult for central bankers

Jan 08, 2016 10:25 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Since 2012, FX sensitivity to policy viz. a viz. interest rate expectations divergence has made it extremely tough for central bankers to conduct monetary policies. BOJ QQE - In 2012, Bank of launched its massive...