Polish economy likely grew 3.8 pct in Q1, expected to expand 3.5 pct in 2017 - Barclays

The Polish economy is expected to have accelerated in the first quarter of 2017. According to a Barclays research report, the real GDP of Poland is likely to have grown 3.8 percent year-on-year, as EU-funded investment likely began to recover in the March quarter. Construction output, which is a leading indicator of investment, grew 17 percent year-on-year in March. Other leading indicators were also consistent with robust real GDP growth in the March quarter.

This renewed momentum in growth is expected to be sustained into the second quarter, and therefore next week’s retail sales data is expected to show a growth of 9.2 percent year-on-year. Meanwhile, industrial production is expected to have expanded 2.5 percent year-on-year in April from March’s 11.1 percent. But this deceleration in industrial production growth does not hint at a slowdown because of strong April 2016 base effects.

“Overall, we expect growth of 3.8 percent in Q1 2017 and 3.5 percent for 2017, as a result of the rebound in EU-funded investment”, added Barclays.