Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Reduction: Brookings Research Outlines Possible Path Forward 
God on their side: how the US, Israel and Iran are all using religion to garner support 
Bank of Japan Officials Signal Continued Interest Rate Hikes Amid Inflation Concerns 
What does China’s host bid mean for the High Seas Treaty? 
RBA Set to Hike Rates Again Amid Inflation Surge and Global Uncertainty 
J.P. Morgan Now Expects Two ECB Rate Hikes Amid Inflation Pressures 
Trump Tariffs Show Minimal Economic Impact but Boost Federal Revenue, Study Finds 
Fed Rate Cut Hopes Fade as Oil Prices Stoke Inflation Fears 
Paraguay Central Bank Holds Interest Rate at 5.5% Amid Slowing Growth 
We emphasize potential trading opportunities related to anomalies or dislocations in emerging market currencies.
TWD has been too strong versus rate differentials,
The TWD is more correlated to interest rate differentials than most EM currencies; the move lower in USDTWD in the past month has far exceeded levels consistent with rates.
Assuming the Fed hikes by year end (we expect a rate hike in December) or at the minimum the market continues to ascribe a decent probability to a near-term rate increase coupled with the likelihood that the CBC eases, rate differentials should move further in the USD’s favour.
Taiwan is also susceptible to renewed fears of China’s growth slowdown. While negative forward points provide positive carry in shorting the TWD.
Hence, we encourage longs in USDTWD on its attractive carry and China exposure sentiment toward EM currencies could be in the procedure of shifting and we prefer to focus on regional low yielders in expressing a bullish dollar view. The slew of hawkish commentary from Fed officials in recent weeks as put the possibility of a rate hike back in play for H2.
