FOMC minutes: Global worries kept Fed from hiking rates in September

The FOMC minutes were mixed as one might expect at a meeting where the decision was such a "close call". On the one hand most participants felt the conditions for hiking "had been met or would likely be met by the end of the year", but on the other, many saw global conditions as an increasing downside risk to the US, some warned a premature rate hike could hurt the Fed's credibility if inflation stayed low and "more now saw the risks to inflation as tilted to the downside". 

When the Fed cites global conditions (China, EM stress, USD appreciation) as a reason to hold back from hiking but also "many participants" judge the effects of these developments on domestic activity as "likely to be small", it is hard not to think the Fed is looking for excuses not to hike. 

The Fed is also paying attention to USD/CAD (which makes sense given Canada is the US's largest export partner). "While the dollar depreciated against the euro and the yen, it appreciated against [CAD]." The US dollar itself gets 18 mentions (50% more than in the June and July minutes).