Market Roundup
• UK Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Mar): 0.8%, 1.5% forecast, 1.2% previous
• UK Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Mar): 0.8%, 1.5% forecast, 1.2% previous
• German Factory Orders (MoM) (Feb): 0.9%, 3.0% forecast, -11.1% previous
• French Reserve Assets Total (Mar): 3,90,629.0M, 4,21,573.0M previous
• French Trade Balance (Feb): -5.8B, -2.4B forecast, -2.0B previous
• French Exports (Feb): 52.0B, 53.2B previous
• French Current Account (Feb): -1.80B, 2.30B previous
• French Imports (Feb): 57.8B, 55.2B previous
•Swiss Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Mar): 3.1%, 3.2% forecast, 3.2% previous
•Swiss Unemployment Rate s.a. (Mar): 3.0%, 3.0% forecast, 3.0% previous
• HCOB France Construction PMI (Mar): 38.4, 43.9 previous
• HCOB Germany Construction PMI (Mar): 48.0, 43.7 previous
•EU PPI (YoY) (Feb): -3.0%, -3.0% forecast, -2.0% previous
•EU PPI (MoM) (Feb): -0.7%, -0.6% forecast, 0.8% previous
•EU Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb): 1.7%, 1.6% forecast, 2.1% previous
•EU Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb): -0.2%, -0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories: -1.000M forecast, 5.451M previous
•15:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: 0.520M previous
•15:30 US Gasoline Inventories: -1.400M forecast, -0.586M previous
•15:30 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW): -0.219M previous
•15:30 US EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (WoW): -0.8% previous
•15:30 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks: -1.500M forecast, -2.111M previous
•15:30 US Gasoline Production: -0.152M previous
•15:30 US Heating Oil Stockpiles: -0.809M previous
•15:30 US Crude Oil Imports: -0.209M previous
•15:30 US Distillate Fuel Production: 0.000M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro rose higher against dollar on Wednesday after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that injected a burst of optimism into markets.The currency moves came alongside a dramatic rally in stocks and government bonds, as investors' risk appetite rapidly returned after the ceasefire was announced less than two hours before Trump's deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would have expired.Trump said the deal was subject to Iran's agreement to pause its blockade of oil and gas supplies through the strait, which typically handles about one-fifth of global oil shipments.The euro rose 0.9% to $1.1698, its highest since early March, the pound gained 1% to $1.3428. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1560(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1629 (April 1st high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1417(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1401(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound rose Wednesday after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that ignited a surge of optimism across global markets as oil prices slid. U.S. President Donald Trump announced the agreement late on Tuesday, just two hours before a deadline he had set for Iran to open the blockaded Strait of Hormuz or face the destruction of its "whole civilisation".Investors priced in around 35 basis points of interest rate hikes by the Bank of England this year - or one and two quarter-point increases - compared with 63 bps on Tuesday.British house prices slid unexpectedly last month as economic uncertainty stemming from the Iran war hurt buyer demand, according to mortgage lender Halifax.British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will travel to the Gulf on Wednesday to hold talks with regional leaders to try to ensure the Strait of Hormuz opens permanently after a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, his office said. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3483(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3519(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3315(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3217(April 7th low).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar jumped on Wednesday in a broad-based rally after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire.U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to a ceasefire with Iran, driving oil prices below $100 a barrel and lifting assets in oil-dependent Asian economies.Investor risk appetite rebounded quickly after the ceasefire announcement, coming just hours before Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz expired. The Reserve Bank of Australia has hiked rates by a total 50 basis points to 4.10% as inflation has been stubbornly stuck well above its target range of 2% to 3%.Markets imply a 55% chance of another quarter-point rise in May, though that was down from near 70% last week, and see rates at 4.61% by year-end.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7084 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7137(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7034(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6976(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped lower on Wednesday as yen rallied on Mideast ceasefire declaration by Trump. More than five weeks after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire ahead of his deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.Iran's Supreme National Security Council portrayed the deal as a victory, claiming Trump had accepted Iran's conditions for the pause .The yen was also supported by intervention fears after Japanese authorities warned against currency weakness, along with expectations of a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.29(SMA20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.93(38.2%fib 0) a break below could take the pair towards 157.68(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European equities surged over 3% following a two-week Middle East truce, boosting global sentiment and raising hopes for the resumption of oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
At GMT (12:20) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 3.13 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 5.34 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 4.97 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold climbed to a near three-week high on Wednesday as oil prices and the U.S. dollar fell sharply following a two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, with talks underway for a permanent end to the conflict.
Spot gold was up 1.7% at $4,783.78 per ounce, as of 1123GMT. Earlier in the session, bullion rose more than 3% to its highest level since March 19.U.S. gold futures for June delivery gained 2.7% to $4,812.60.
Oil prices fell below $100 a barrel while stocks and bonds rallied on Wednesday after Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, boosting market sentiment on hopes of renewed oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent oil futures were last down 13.7% at $94.29, while U.S crude futures were down 16% at $94.93 a barrel, but were still well above pre-war levels.
