Market Roundup
• UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb): 2.5%, 2.1% forecast, 4.8% previous
• UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb): 3.4%, 2.9% forecast, 5.9% previous
• UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb): -0.4%, -0.8% forecast, 2.2% previous
• UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb): -0.4%, -0.6% forecast, 2.0% previous
• Spanish CPI (YoY) (Mar): 3.3%, 3.6% forecast, 2.3% previous
• Spanish HICP (YoY) (Mar): 3.3%, 3.9% forecast, 2.5% previous
• Spanish CPI (MoM) (Mar): 1.0%, 1.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
• Spanish HICP (MoM) (Mar): 1.5%, 2.1% forecast, 0.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 10:10 Italian 10-Year BTP Auction 3.31% previous
• 10:10 Italian 5-Year BTP Auction 2.62% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•10:00 Eurogroup Meetings
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Friday as investors sought the safety of the dollar amid an intensifying Middle East conflict and growing doubts over de-escalation.Markets remained volatile after a turbulent week, with Donald Trump extending the deadline for potential strikes on Iran’s energy facilities into April, while Washington and Tehran gave conflicting signals on diplomatic progress. Investors now see over a 40% chance of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike by September, according to the CME FedWatch tool marking a sharp shift from earlier expectations of more than 50 bps of easing before the conflict. The Bank of England and European Central Bank are also expected to tighten policy, with the hawkish shift weighing on bonds and pushing yields higher. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1566(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1583 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1444(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1413(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD:The British pound eased against the dollar on Friday as the intensifying Middle East conflict fuelled safe-haven demand for the greenback and pressured non-dollar currencies. U.S. President Donald Trump said he would extend a pause on strikes against Iran's energy facilities into April and that talks with Iran were going very well, but an Iranian official dismissed the U.S. proposal to end the war as "one-sided and unfair. Brent crude held above $105 a barrel, stoking inflation fears, as the Middle East conflict has all but halted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a major conduit for roughly one-fifth of global crude and LNG flows. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3371(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3398(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3256(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3229(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar hovered near a two-month low on Friday as concerns over a prolonged Middle East energy shock weighed on global growth and commodity demand.Investors found some relief after Donald Trump extended his deadline to strike Iranian power plants by 10 days, following an earlier delay.Oil prices rose amid uncertainty around diplomatic efforts, supporting the U.S. dollar. Economists expect inflation to climb, with CPI approaching 4.5% and potentially hitting 5% next quarter if energy prices remain high.Markets are pricing in a 68% chance of a May rate hike, with interest rates projected to reach 4.75% by year-end.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7012(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7064(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6940(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6893(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Friday as the yen weakened, with the Middle East conflict and recent central bank signals fuelling inflation concerns and prompting investors to reassess the path of rate hikes.Japan remains highly vulnerable to spikes in crude oil prices due to its heavy reliance on energy imports. Rising oil costs feed into domestic inflation, eroding the real value of fixed-income assets and increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan to tighten policy.Revised output gap data from the Bank of Japan showed demand exceeded supply for a 15th straight quarter, reversing earlier estimates that pointed to prolonged excess supply, and signalling a stronger likelihood of rising prices. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.87(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.01(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 158.08 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
Asian equities fell on Friday, led by South Korea, as oil held above $100 despite Donald Trump’s 10-day pause on strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 0.08% , South Korea’s KOSPI was down at 0.40 %, China A50 was up at 0.62 %
Commodities Recap
Gold rose 2% on Friday, as surging energy prices fuelled inflation concerns and raised expectations of higher global interest rates.
Spot gold rose 2% to $4,466.38 per ounce as of 0637 GMT. The commodity has fallen about 0.5% so far this week.
Oil was set for a weekly drop after Donald Trump extended a 10-day pause on strikes against Iran’s energy facilities, though uncertainty over the conflict kept investors cautious.
Oil benchmarks were little changed on Friday after a strong prior session, with Brent at $107.97 and WTI at $94.08.
