Market Roundup
• Spanish Unemployment Change (Mar)-22.9K ,10.3K forecast,3.6K previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar): 54.8, 56.1 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Mar): 51.8 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Mar): 63.0 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Mar): 58.6 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (Mar): 59.9 previous
•14:00 US CB Employment Trends Index (Mar): 105.37 previous
•14:00 US 3-Month Bill Auction: 3.620% previous
•14:00 US 6-Month Bill Auction: 3.605% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against dollar on Monday as investors awaited clarity on reports of U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks that came after U.S. President Donald Trump warned Tehran of "hell" unless the Strait of Hormuz was reopened.Trump warned in an expletive-laden Easter Sunday social media post that he would order strikes on Iran's power plants and bridges on Tuesday if the strategic waterway was not reopened.The United States and Iran have received the framework of a plan to end hostilities, but Tehran rejected an immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after President Donald Trump threatened to rain "hell" on Iran if it failed to reach a deal by the end of Tuesday. Trading volumes on Monday were expected to be thin as many markets in Europe and Asia are closed for public holidays. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1560(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1629 (April 1st high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1417(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1401(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged higher against the dollar on Monday as investors remained cautious amid escalating tensions in the Iran conflict. The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, an essential chokepoint in global oil trade, has weighed on energy prices and has reinforced inflation fears.This week, investors will parse a slew of domestic data including inflation readings to see if the price pressures have trickled into the economy after Friday's data showed U.S. job growth rebounded more than expected in March.The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing PMI for March will be watched later in the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3259(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3312(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3182(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3153(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher but gains were limited on Tuesday as nervous investors took stock of the escalating Iran war. Investor sentiment continues to swing sharply amid escalating rhetoric from Donald Trump, who has threatened harsh action if Tehran does not reach an agreement and reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday. Brent oil prices climbed as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran continued to disrupt global energy supplies.Rising crude prices are fuelling inflation concerns, with markets pricing in the possibility of another rate hike in May, supported by strong oil and a tight labor market.Economists project that the Reserve Bank of Australia will implement three additional rate hikes in 2026, bringing the cash rate to 4.85%—its highest point since November 2008. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6945(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6990(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6862(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6810(Higher BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower against yen as traders remained alert for signs of potential intervention by Tokyo following strong warnings from officials in recent days.Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned on Friday that authorities stand ready to act against speculative moves in currency markets, noting that volatility has increased “significantly.”."Scepticism remains over intervention impact, as geopolitical tensions boost safe-haven dollar demand, leaving the yen down 1.5% and pinned near 160.Speculators have continued to build short yen positions, with the latest weekly data showing net shorts at $5.7 billion. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.82(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.99(SMA20) a break below could take the pair towards 158.08(38.2%fib).
Commodities Recap
Oil climbed on Monday as Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Iran rattled markets, with ceasefire reports offering some relief.
Brent crude futures opened higher before paring gains, rising 1.2% to $110.29 a barrel on the potential supply disruption.
Gold prices fell on Monday, weighed down by a stronger dollar as elevated oil prices and robust U.S. jobs data reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Spot gold slipped 0.5% to $4,652.89 per ounce by 0452 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for April delivery held steady at $4,678.70 in thin trade, with many markets in Asia and Europe closed for a holiday.
