Market Roundup
• German CPI (MoM) (Mar): 1.2%, 0.2% previous
• German CPI (MoM) (Mar): 1.1%, 0.4% previous.
• German CPI (YoY) (Mar): 2.9%, 2.2% previous.
• German CPI (YoY) (Mar): 2.8%, 2.3% previous.
• German CPI (MoM) (Mar): 1.1%, 0.3% previous.
• German CPI (MoM) (Mar): 0.9%, 0.2% previous.
• German CPI (YoY) (Mar): 2.5%, 1.8% previous.
• German CPI (YoY) (Mar): 2.8%, 2.0% previous.
• German CPI (MoM) (Mar): 1.1%, 0.4% previous.
• UK Mortgage Approvals (Feb): 62.58K, 61.00K forecast, 60.25K previous.
• UK M4 Money Supply (MoM) (Feb): 0.6%, 0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous.
• UK BoE Consumer Credit (Feb): 1.935B, 1.600B forecast, 1.828B previous.
• UK Mortgage Lending (Feb): 4.84B, 4.10B forecast, 4.21B previous.
• UK M3 Money Supply (Feb): 3,228.4B, 3,210.2B previous.
• UK Net Lending to Individuals (Feb): 6.800B, 5.600B forecast, 5.900B previous.
• EU Selling Price Expectations (Mar): 19.7, 12.3 previous.
• EU Consumer Inflation Expectation (Mar): 43.4, 26.2 previous.
• EU Business and Consumer Survey (Mar): 96.6, 96.5 forecast, 98.2 previous.
• EU Industrial Sentiment (Mar): -7.0, -9.0 forecast, -7.2 previous.
• EU Services Sentiment (Mar): 4.9, 4.0 forecast, 5.0 previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 15:00 US 3-Month Bill Auction 3.635% previous.
• 15:00 US 6-Month Bill Auctio 3.630% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro slipped lower on Monday as mixed signals from Iran and the United States dimmed hopes of a possible quick end to the Middle East conflict. U.S.President Donald Trump said that Iran's new leaders have been "very reasonable", as more U.S troops arrived in the region and Tehran warned it will not accept humiliation. Meanwhile, German inflation accelerated in March due to surging energy prices against the backdrop of the Iran war, and economists see further increases ahead. Inflation, which is EU-harmonised, reached 2.8% year-on-year, preliminary data from the federal statistics office showed on Monday. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was unchanged from the previous month at 2.5%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1520(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1560 (SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1398(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1369(Lower BB).
GBP/USD:The British pound eased against the dollar on Monday as investors fretted about the impact of the Iran war on the British economy.The pound remains the best-performing currency against the greenback since the war began in early March.However strategists see it vulnerable as Britain's heavy dependence on imported natural gas, persistently high inflation and stretched public finances have pushed its government bonds into a far steeper decline. Investors await local elections on May 7 as Keir Starmer's governing Labour Party is trailing the populist Reform UK and the left-wing Green Party.Economic data showed last week British business activity has grown at the slowest pace in six months and manufacturers' input costs accelerated at the fastest rate since 1992, while retail sales fell. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3285(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3360(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3186(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3146(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dipped on Monday as risk sentiment weakened amid an expanding Middle East conflict. Donald Trump signals progress on a potential peace deal, even as preparations for a possible ground offensive continue. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait emerges as a fresh oil supply risk after Houthi attacks on Israel, adding to inflation and commodity concerns . Focus shifts to Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes on Tuesday for clearer guidance on policy outlook.Much attention will be on how board members balance the risks of inflation and economic growth as a fuel shortage gripped some parts of the country. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6876(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6923(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.683(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6788(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased on Monday as yen firmed on potential for Japan’s FX intervention risk.Japan ramped up yen intervention warnings and hinted that further currency weakness could prompt a near-term rate hike, amid rising inflation concerns from the Middle East conflict.In the strongest warning yet on intervention, Atsushi Mimura said authorities may take “decisive” action if speculative moves in the yen persist.The remark marked an escalation, as Atsushi Mimura used the term “decisive” for the first time language markets see as a clear signal of potential intervention.Separately, Kazuo Ueda said the central bank will closely monitor yen moves, with weakness potentially fueling inflation and justifying rate hikes in the coming months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 160.47(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 161.07(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.59(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 158.82 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares edged higher in choppy trading on Monday as energy stocks rose, while investors digested inflation data from Germany, euro zone's largest economy.
At GMT (13:40) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 1.31 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.45 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.52 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose for a second day on safe-haven demand but remained set for a monthly drop on inflation and rate concerns.
Spot gold rose 1.6% to $4,564.00 per ounce by 8:51 a.m. ET (1251 GMT) after hitting its lowest level since November early last week.U.S. gold futures for April delivery gained 1.5% to $4,594.00.
Oil prices extended gains on Monday, with Brent heading for a record monthly rise, after Yemeni Houthis widened the Iran war by launching their first attacks on Israel.
Brent crude futures jumped $2.26, or 2%, to $114.83 a barrel by 1320 GMT after settling 4.2% higher on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up $1.49, or 1.5%, at $101.13 after a 5.5% gain in the previous session.
