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Brazil’s recession likely to be little more contained in 2016 on marginally better job elimination numbers

Brazil eliminated 99,964 jobs in January 2016, as compared with 81,774 in January 2015. The total number of jobs eliminated, in seasonally adjusted terms, was 129,235, as compared with 154k in December and an average of 167k per month in H2 2015. The numbers, overall, seem slightly better; however, if the current rate of job elimination carries on, Brazil will have eliminated another 1.5 million in 2016, after a record 1.6 million in 2015.

Job elimination was mainly noticeable in the commerce sector that closed 69.8k job positions. However, this is expected to have been in influenced by the end of temporary jobs in December, the holiday season. Besides that, the processing industry and the services sector both recorded job eliminations of about 17 k, whereas the agricultural sector created 8.7k job positions, which is expected to have been seasonally influenced by the harvest season in summer.

The high level of job elimination indicates that the continued decline of the labor market will weaken the Brazilian household consumption again in 2016, as household consumption is the key factor behind the real GDP recession in 2016. The slightly better numbers do not give any optimistic feeling regarding any rebound in the nation's economy; however, it supports the view that Brazil's recession in 2016 might be a little bit more contained as compared to 2015.

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