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FxWirePro: Low vol plus flat curve in sync with buying EUR/USD forward vols

Jun 14, 2017 12:07 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

After the French presidential election, the EURUSD volatility curve aggressively sold off, reaching its lowest level since 2014. Since then, implied vols have bounced only very timidly and are still very close to their...

FxWirePro: Chinese flow of investments slowdown, Is volatility underpricing China tail risks?

Jun 14, 2017 11:02 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

As expected by us, Chinas investment growth slowed. Latest data showed that Chinas fixed asset investment grew 8.6% YoY year-to-date in May, below market expectations and previous reading at 8.9%. After seasonal...

FxWirePro: Favor EUR/USD top end range with “European knock in options”

Jun 14, 2017 08:27 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

EURUSD has traded between about 1.05 and 1.16 since 2015. While these bounds are pretty wide, this has been the longest period deprived of trends since the introduction of the single currency (refer above graph). EURUSD...

FxWirePro: What matters for choppy euro appreciation? RVs, IVs and skews to bid for OTM call strikes

Jun 14, 2017 08:10 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

As the FX markets focus returns to monetary policy, its relationship with interest rates will become more prominent. The last time that FX vol was durably in a low regime coincided with a period when central bank policies...

FxWirePro: Bullish and bearish scenarios, OTC indications and hedging solutions of USD/JPY

Jun 14, 2017 07:26 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

Bearish: USD/JPY to 125 if 1) The strong US growth leads aggressive Fed hikes and a spike in UST yields, resulting in broad USD strength, 2) The Japanese governments fiscal policy becomes more expansionary and the...

FxWirePro: Why do Loonie seem vulnerable? Cover USD/CAD exposure risks with covered call strategy

Jun 13, 2017 13:10 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

Last Friday, the front end of the Canadian rates market priced a 30% chance that rates would go up this year. One speech from BOC Senior Deputy-Governor Carolyn Wilkins later, and pricing is over 50%. She cited broadening...

FxWirePro: Strategic derivatives trades in global equities and FX space in H2’2017

Jun 13, 2017 12:54 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

In the US, despite the good economic backdrop, equity volatility has moved into oversold territory, and we illustrate this with a number of examples including an analysis of the business cycle. We advise caution in the...

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Economy

Nigerians throw naira notes around to show love: but it could land you in jail

The legal implication of physically damaging the naira, Nigerias currency, came into focus recently with the prosecution of at least two celebrities by the countrys Economic and Financial Crimes Commission. Nigeria has a...

The US is one of the least trade-oriented countries in the world – despite laying the groundwork for today’s globalized system

Given the spate of news about international trade lately, Americans might be surprised to learn that the U.S. isnt very dependent on it. Indeed, looking at trade as a percentage of gross domestic product a metric...

Beyond the spin, beyond the handouts, here’s how to get a handle on what’s really happening on budget night

Three weeks from now, some of us will be presented with a mountain of budget papers, and just about all of us will get to hear about them on radio, TV or news websites on budget night. The quickest way to find out what...

Johannesburg in a time of darkness: Ivan Vladislavić’s new memoir reminds us of the city’s fragility

Ivan Vladislavić is Johannesburgs literary linkman. He tells us, in the first pages of his new book, The Near North, that before cities were lit, first by gaslight and later electricity, people of means paid torchbearers...

Economist Chris Richardson on an ‘ugly’ inflation result and the coming budget

With Jim Chalmerss third budget on May 14, Australians will be looking for some more cost-of-living relief beyond the tax cuts although they have been warned extra measures will be modest. As this weeks consumer price...

Politics

Sudan’s civil war is rooted in its historical favouritism of Arab and Islamic identity

The current civil war in Sudan goes beyond a simple power struggle between two generals. It reflects a deep-rooted crisis within the countrys governing structure thats been present since it gained independence from the...

South Africa’s youth are a generation lost under democracy – study

South African president Cyril Ramaphosa recently painted a rosy picture in which the countrys youth democracys children had enormous opportunities for advancement, all thanks to successive post-apartheid governments led...

Sadiq Khan on track for third term as London mayor – but nearly half of Londoners dissatisfied with performance

Polls have consistently shown that the incumbent mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, appears to be on track to win a third term in office at the upcoming mayoral elections on May 2. One poll we commissioned as part of our...

The politics stopping the UK from opening a youth mobility scheme with Europe

Earlier this week, it seemed possible that young people in the UK might soon be able to travel freely to work and live in Europe again. The European Commission laid out proposals to open mobility to millions of 18- to...

Biden administration tells employers to stop shackling workers with ‘noncompete agreements’

Most American workers are hired at will: Employers owe their employees nothing in the relationship except earned wages, and employees are at liberty to quit at their option. As the rule is generally stated, either party...

Science

IceCube researchers detect a rare type of energetic neutrino sent from powerful astronomical objects

About a trillion tiny particles called neutrinos pass through you every second. Created during the Big Bang, these relic neutrinos exist throughout the entire universe, but they cant harm you. In fact, only one of them is...

The Mars Sample Return mission has a shaky future, and NASA is calling on private companies for backup

A critical NASA mission in the search for life beyond Earth, Mars Sample Return, is in trouble. Its budget has ballooned from US$5 billion to over $11 billion, and the sample return date may slip from the end of this...

Dark matter: our new experiment aims to turn the ghostly substance into actual light

A ghost is haunting our universe. This has been known in astronomy and cosmology for decades. Observations suggest that about 85% of all the matter in the universe is mysterious and invisible. These two qualities are...

A Nasa rover has reached a promising place to search for fossilised life on Mars

While we go about our daily lives on Earth, a nuclear-powered robot the size of a small car is trundling around Mars looking for fossils. Unlike its predecessor Curiosity, Nasas Perseverance rover is explicitly intended to...

The rising flood of space junk is a risk to us on Earth – and governments are on the hook

A piece of space junk recently crashed through the roof and floor of a mans home in Florida. Nasa later confirmed that the object had come from unwanted hardware released from the international space station. The 700g,...

Technology

Huawei's Mate 70 Series to Run on Kirin 9100 Chip: AnTuTu Scores Equal Snapdragon 8 Gen 1

Rumors swirl around Huaweis upcoming Mate 70 flagship series, hinting at a groundbreaking inclusion: the Kirin 9100 chipset. Initial performance figures suggest the chip matches Qualcomms Snapdragon 8 Gen 1, setting the...

Kraken's Bold Move: Expanding into Germany with DLT Finance Partnership

Cryptocurrency giant Kraken makes waves with its strategic decision to launch operations in Germany, a pivotal move in its broader European expansion plan. Teaming up with DLT Finance, a regulated financial institution,...

Macron's France Targets Fourfold Increase in EV Sales by 2027; Welcomes BYD Factory Plans

France has announced plans to quadruple EV sales by 2027. The agreement, enhancing Frances position against global competitors, aligns with a state visit from China, spotlighting potential collaborations with major...

Shiba Inu Insider Urges Focus on SHIB and BTC Amid Market Rally

In a recent wake-up call, Lucie of the Shiba Inu team urged the cryptocurrency community to closely monitor Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Bitcoin (BTC) as both tokens exhibit strong price recoveries. This comes amid growing...

Is China Opening Doors to Bitcoin ETFs? Investor's Comment Sparks Debate

Following the recent launch of Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong, speculation is mounting over potential access for mainland Chinese investors. Richard Byworth, a prominent Bitcoin investor, suggested that these ETFs could soon be...