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FxWirePro: How to approach 2018, a depressed vols scenario? ATMF vs ATMS call spreads in two EM currency crosses

Jan 09, 2018 08:59 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

The global picture on the volatility front hasnt really changed in recent months. Implied and realized volatility is still hovering in their low or very low percentiles. Long carry through the 2018 year ahead outlook...

FxWirePro: Cable upside potential more likely in Q1 but unwise to disregard bearish risk – Options straps for smart hedging

Jan 09, 2018 07:06 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

Even with sterling making new lows in trade-weighted terms (nominal and real), GBPUSD meandering in a 1.30-1.35 range is foreseen for most H1 of 2018. However, a slump to GBPUSD 1.25 would require, above all else, a...

FxWirePro: Spot out likely and unlikely drivers of Sterling’s tantrum in 2018 and deploy 3-way straddles to keep a check on seesaw GBP/AUD oscillation

Jan 08, 2018 13:03 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

We expect three years of real GDP growth below 1% in 2018-2020, averaging 0.8% per annum, about a quarter of the worlds average growth rate. On a positive note, that ought to be enough to shrink the current account deficit...

FxWirePro: GBP/AUD bears resume at channel resistance, bears on verge of forming triple top –Boundary binaries as minor trend restrained below 38.2% Fib

Jan 08, 2018 11:29 am UTC| Technicals Insights & Views

As you could probably observe on monthly plotting, the bull swings seem to have been totally exhausted at channel resistance. Ever since then, steep slumps have been evidenced. As a result, the current prices are still...

FxWirePro: 2017 a year of Brexit speculations, NAFTA in 2018 to offer carry-relative value structures

Jan 08, 2018 09:49 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views Central Banks

As we have done with the Brexit-driven long GBP vol theme the last year, NAFTA or BoC-related CAD-volatility seems to be the best isolated via easy-to-carry relative value structures in 2018. CAD-denominated...

FxWirePro: LATAM FX hedging intricacies with pinch of salt

Jan 08, 2018 08:52 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

Fundamentals currently seem uber-supportive for EMFX space. However, as this opinion has become the consensus, it raises red flags. A simple, and perhaps naive, parallel to previous cycles suggests that 2018 may resemble...

FxWirePro: What leads and what lags TRY in Q1’2018? OTC calls to hedge USD/TRY FX risks

Jan 08, 2018 07:32 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

In Turkey, the CBRT disappointed consensus and market expectations of 100bp of hikes to the late liquidity window (to 13.25%) by hiking only 50bp to 12.75%. The 50bps rate hike is not sufficed to stabilize the currency, as...

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Economy

RBI Holds Interest Rates Steady Amid Middle East Tensions and Global Uncertainty

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25% during its latest policy meeting, a decision that aligned with market expectations. Governor Sanjay Malhotra acknowledged the resilience...

Xi Jinping Pushes Demand-Driven Strategy to Modernize China's Service Sector

Chinas President Xi Jinping has outlined a bold strategy to transform the countrys service industry, calling for a demand-led approach supported by structural reform and technological innovation. The directive was reported...

Trump Suspends Iran Strikes for Two Weeks as Ceasefire Talks Begin

President Donald Trump announced Tuesday evening that he would delay planned military strikes against Iran for two weeks, marking a significant diplomatic breakthrough after weeks of escalating tensions. The suspension...

U.S. Stock Futures Surge as Trump Postpones Iran Strikes, Ceasefire Hopes Rise

U.S. stock index futures climbed sharply on Tuesday evening as optimism grew over a potential end to the ongoing Middle East conflict. The rally followed President Donald Trumps announcement that planned military strikes...

Oil Prices Crash 15% as Trump and Iran Agree to Two-Week Ceasefire

Crude oil markets were thrown into a frenzy on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, triggering one of the sharpest single-day oil price drops seen in recent memory. The...

Politics

Trump Announces U.S. Military Presence in Strait of Hormuz Following Iran Ceasefire Deal

President Donald Trump announced Wednesday that the United States will actively support the flow of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the worlds most strategically critical waterways. Speaking publicly,...

U.S. Automakers Push Back Against EU Rules Blocking American Trucks from European Market

American automobile manufacturers are raising alarms over what they describe as deliberate European Union barriers preventing some of their most iconic and best-selling pickup trucks from entering the European market....

ICE Officer-Involved Shooting in Northern California After Suspect Rams Vehicle

Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers shot and wounded a man in Patterson, California, on Tuesday after he allegedly attempted to use his car as a weapon against agents during an enforcement operation. ICE Acting...

Trump Claims "Total and Complete Victory" After U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Agreement

President Donald Trump declared a sweeping American victory on Tuesday following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran, describing the outcome as a 100 percent win for the United States. Speaking...

World Reacts as Trump Issues Dire Warning to Iran Ahead of Surprise Ceasefire

Global leaders, lawmakers, and even members of Donald Trumps own Republican Party pushed back sharply after the U.S. president issued a sweeping threat suggesting an entire civilization could be destroyed unless Iran...

Science

NASA Artemis II: First Crewed Moon Mission Since Apollo Takes Four Astronauts on 10-Day Lunar Journey

NASAs Artemis II mission launched Wednesday, marking humanitys return to crewed lunar exploration for the first time since the Apollo era. Carrying four astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft, this historic 10-day mission...

NASA's Artemis II Mission: First Crewed Lunar Journey Since Apollo

NASA's Artemis II Crew Arrives in Florida for Historic Moon Mission

The four astronauts chosen for NASAs Artemis II mission have touched down at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, marking the beginning of final launch preparations for the first crewed lunar journey in over 50 years. NASA...

SpaceX Pivots Toward Moon City as Musk Reframes Long-Term Space Vision

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has revealed a significant shift in the companys near-term space exploration strategy, announcing that SpaceX is now prioritizing the development of a self-growing city on the Moon rather than focusing...

SpaceX Prioritizes Moon Mission Before Mars as Starship Development Accelerates

Elon Musks SpaceX is shifting its near-term space exploration strategy, choosing to prioritize a return to the Moon before pursuing missions to Mars, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report citing sources familiar...

Technology

U.S. Disrupts Russian Military Hackers' Global DNS Hijacking Network

The U.S. Justice Department has successfully executed a court-authorized operation to dismantle a DNS hijacking network tied to Russian military intelligence. The network was run by GRU Military Unit 26165, a cyber unit...

Samsung Electronics Posts Eightfold Profit Surge Driven by AI Chip Demand

Samsung Electronics delivered a stunning financial turnaround in the first quarter of 2025, projecting operating profit of approximately 57.2 trillion won (roughly $38 billion) a more than eightfold increase compared to...

China's Push to Steal Taiwan's Chip Technology and Talent Raises Security Alarms

Taiwans National Security Bureau has raised serious concerns about Beijings escalating efforts to infiltrate the islands world-class semiconductor industry. According to a report submitted to Taiwanese lawmakers, China is...

Apple's Foldable iPhone Faces Engineering Setbacks, Mass Production Timeline at Risk

Apples highly anticipated foldable iPhone is running into significant engineering hurdles during its test phase, raising concerns about potential delays in both mass production and product shipments, according to a report...

Britain Courts Anthropic Amid US Defense Department Dispute

The United Kingdom is actively working to attract Anthropic, the company behind the popular Claude AI app, to expand its footprint in the country. This diplomatic push comes as Anthropic finds itself in the middle of a...