GLOBALcycle brightens up in May

Jun 05, 2015 09:20 am UTC| Commentary

The GLOBALcycle indicator, which tracks economic conditions in economies covering 80% of world GDP, increased in May after a weak start to the year. Economic conditions improved in EM, led primarily by China. Meanwhile,...

German & US 10yr yields topping out and turning bullish

Jun 05, 2015 09:08 am UTC| Commentary

Bunds and US 10yr yields are topping out and turning bullish. While Bund yields have exceeded the expected topping zone at 85.5bps/89.9bps, the daily candlestick indicates trend exhaustion, as both momentum and Elliott...

Europe — Greece Inching Closer To Default

Jun 05, 2015 08:17 am UTC| Commentary

Europes focus will remain the saga of Greek debt negotiations as other forms of market risk will be relatively subdued and concentrated upon limited data risk next week. The issue of Greece is likely to receive...

United States — Consumers Arriving Too Late & Possibly Fleeting?

Jun 05, 2015 07:58 am UTC| Commentary

Pretty much the only material domestic risk overhanging US markets next week will be Thursdays retail sales release for May. It could well bea very solid print, but the bar is very high for it to be enough to rescue the...

Germany: Solid start into Q2

Jun 05, 2015 07:31 am UTC| Commentary

German manufacturing orders rose in April by 1.4% on the month. If the always very volatile orders in the "other vehicles" sector (aircraft etc.) had not fallen, the increase would even have been one percentage point...

Q1 15 euro-area GDP breakdown to show a consumption-led recovery

Jun 05, 2015 06:59 am UTC| Commentary

The second estimate of euro-area GDP is expected to confirm the first estimate of 0.4% qoq and 1.0% yoy. Consumption rose 0.4% qoq in Q1 15. In terms of GDP components, the 2015 cyclical recovery is mainly being driven by...

German's factory orders still looking for direction

Jun 05, 2015 06:51 am UTC| Commentary

In April, factory orders is expected to rise by a weak 0.2% mom, following a 0.9% increase in March."While foreign orders should drop sizeable due to the 4.3% bounce in March, domestic orders should recover equally...