China’s debt overhang is weighing on its economy
Jul 23, 2015 22:17 pm UTC| Commentary
As swift as economic growth has been in China, credit growth over the last several years has been even more rapid. Following the financial crisis in 2008-09 and again as growth flagged in 2011 and 2012, China undertook...
The Chinese economy is slowing on a structural basis
Jul 23, 2015 22:09 pm UTC| Commentary
As an economy grows larger and wealthier, maintaining double-digit growth rates becomes increasingly difficult. This pattern of slowing growth is especially true of countries that were able to take advantage of...
Mexico's industrial production growth slowdown in H1
Jul 23, 2015 21:41 pm UTC| Commentary
Societe Generale notes:Mexican industrial production posted its first negative print (-0.94% yoy) in 13 months in May as exports fell yoy on slow demand growth in the US. As a result, we estimate growth to have slowed...
US jobless claims fell to 255k
Jul 23, 2015 21:08 pm UTC| Commentary
US jobless claims fell to 255k, a new cycle low and well below the median estimate of 278k. Holidays and auto-retooling were factors at play. The July average is 274k so far, suggesting the monthly payrolls report will be...
Fed’s “gradualism” implies gradual dollar appreciation
Jul 23, 2015 20:58 pm UTC| Commentary
Over the past two weeks, the rates market has significantly repriced rate-hike expectations from no lift-off this year to a high probability of a September hike. This has consequently put renewed upward pressure on the...
Fed’s “gradualism” implies gradual dollar appreciation
Jul 23, 2015 20:54 pm UTC| Commentary
Over the past two weeks, the rates market has significantly repriced rate-hike expectations from no lift-off this year to a high probability of a September hike. This has consequently put renewed upward pressure on the...
Current US dollar and commodity levels unlikely to derail a September hike
Jul 23, 2015 20:37 pm UTC| Commentary
The broad trade-weighted dollar index appreciated noticeably over the past few weeks and is now approaching the peak levels reached in March. Meanwhile, oil prices have fallen to new lows. Understandably, all of this has...
Johannesburg in a time of darkness: Ivan Vladislavić’s new memoir reminds us of the city’s fragility
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