China's path of growth slowdown as rebalancing continues

Dec 08, 2015 23:43 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

Investment growth is expected to decelerate further in the next two years, but likely at a slower pace than before. Meanwhile, consumption growth will likely stabilize at lower levels, on the back of relatively firm growth...

EMs are facing a challenging global environment today

Dec 08, 2015 23:27 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

Post-crisis global growth is still elusive after eight years since the global financial crisis broke out, with developed markets on course for recovery at a moderate pace and many emerging markets struggling to regain...

Japan's inflation rate should improve to around 1.5% from 2H 2016

Dec 08, 2015 23:13 pm UTC| Commentary

As of September 2015, the core CPI (all items excluding fresh food) declined 0.1% yoy, but that number was +1.2% when excluding energy, the highest it has been since the start of QQE, and the underlying rate of inflation...

A delicate political equilibrium will persist in Italy

Dec 08, 2015 23:04 pm UTC| Commentary Politics

The year ahead will likely be characterized by the same delicate political equilibrium as in 2015. Political risks are multiple, but still see the balance of forces tilted on Prime Minister Matteo Renzis side. This would...

Germany’s government under scrutiny

Dec 08, 2015 22:50 pm UTC| Commentary Politics

Germanys Willkommenskultur and Chancellor Angela Merkels generous stance on the refugee movement, so prominent during the summer, are coming under pressure as the number of asylum seekers continues to rise. Between January...

Migrant Crisis Series

Refugee crisis and German auto industry are the two domestic risks in euro area

Dec 08, 2015 22:43 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

The refugee crisis, which may test further the limits of integration, particularly after the recent tragic events in Paris. A potential backlash against external immigration would have detrimental consequences for...

US economy remains on track toward full capacity, despite global headwinds

Dec 08, 2015 22:02 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

The US economy remains on track toward full capacity, despite global headwinds. In the first three quarters of this year, trade sliced 0.6% off of growth, mining investment another 0.6%, and inventories 0.2%. That leaves...