Ukraine Preparing for Possible Russian Offensive From Bryansk, Military Chief Says

Ukraine is preparing for a possible new Russian offensive from the country's northern border, although a direct assault on Kyiv is considered unlikely, according to Ukraine's top military commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi.

Speaking in an interview with Ukraine's TSN television broadcast on Tuesday, Syrskyi said intelligence from multiple sources suggests Russia could launch offensive operations from the Bryansk region, which borders northern Ukraine. He described the scenario as a realistic possibility and confirmed that Ukrainian forces are making preparations to counter any such move.

Syrskyi said the expected objective of a Russian attack would differ from Moscow's failed attempt to capture Kyiv during the opening phase of the February 2022 invasion. Instead of advancing toward the Ukrainian capital, Russian forces would likely seek to seize territory in the Chernihiv region and force Ukraine to divert troops from other parts of the 1,250-kilometer front line.

According to Syrskyi, such a strategy would allow Russia to stretch Ukrainian defenses, reduce available reserves, and place additional pressure on forces already engaged in heavy fighting across eastern and southern Ukraine.

The Ukrainian commander also addressed concerns about Belarus potentially becoming more directly involved in the conflict. While Kyiv has repeatedly warned that Moscow is attempting to persuade Belarus to expand its role in the war, Syrskyi said he believes such a scenario is currently unlikely.

Belarus, which allowed Russian troops to launch part of their initial invasion from its territory in 2022, is not expected to authorize another offensive from its soil, Syrskyi said. Nevertheless, he stressed that Ukraine continues to monitor the possibility and is preparing for every potential threat.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy recently accused Belarus of hosting relay stations allegedly used to support attacks against Ukraine and demanded they be dismantled. Zelenskiy later stated that the facilities were no longer operating.

Syrskyi also noted signs that Russian forces are becoming increasingly fatigued after months of intense fighting. He said the intensity of combat along the front line has fallen by around 30%, suggesting Russian troops may be experiencing operational exhaustion.

At the same time, Ukraine continues to carry out long-range strikes deep inside Russian territory. Syrskyi said these attacks are primarily targeting infrastructure linked to Russia's oil industry, part of Kyiv's broader strategy to weaken Moscow's military logistics and economic resources while maintaining pressure across the battlefield.

The latest assessment highlights Ukraine's continued focus on strengthening its northern defenses while remaining alert to shifting Russian military tactics as the war enters another critical phase.