Currency War Series

RBI to cut final 25bp in February with inflation in 5-6% range; rains key

Dec 09, 2015 00:32 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan is expected to cut 25bp in February. Inflation should peak at 5.5-6% by January 2016 to meet the RBIs under-6% target. The RBI will be on a long pause thereafter. RBIs around 5% March 2017...

China's structural and cyclical slowdown; reforms remain key to maintain growth

Dec 09, 2015 00:18 am UTC| Commentary Economy

The gradual slowdown over the last four years has been due to the potential growth rate grinding lower and cyclical pressure on the economy. That implies there is room to support potential growth with structural reforms...

China's path of growth slowdown as rebalancing continues

Dec 08, 2015 23:43 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

Investment growth is expected to decelerate further in the next two years, but likely at a slower pace than before. Meanwhile, consumption growth will likely stabilize at lower levels, on the back of relatively firm growth...

EMs are facing a challenging global environment today

Dec 08, 2015 23:27 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

Post-crisis global growth is still elusive after eight years since the global financial crisis broke out, with developed markets on course for recovery at a moderate pace and many emerging markets struggling to regain...

Japan's inflation rate should improve to around 1.5% from 2H 2016

Dec 08, 2015 23:13 pm UTC| Commentary

As of September 2015, the core CPI (all items excluding fresh food) declined 0.1% yoy, but that number was +1.2% when excluding energy, the highest it has been since the start of QQE, and the underlying rate of inflation...

A delicate political equilibrium will persist in Italy

Dec 08, 2015 23:04 pm UTC| Commentary Politics

The year ahead will likely be characterized by the same delicate political equilibrium as in 2015. Political risks are multiple, but still see the balance of forces tilted on Prime Minister Matteo Renzis side. This would...

Germany’s government under scrutiny

Dec 08, 2015 22:50 pm UTC| Commentary Politics

Germanys Willkommenskultur and Chancellor Angela Merkels generous stance on the refugee movement, so prominent during the summer, are coming under pressure as the number of asylum seekers continues to rise. Between January...