Nvidia Stock Rises as SemiAnalysis Sees AI Data Center Revenue Beating Wall Street Forecasts

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) shares rebounded on the final trading day of the quarter after bullish supply-chain research from independent semiconductor firm SemiAnalysis suggested the AI chipmaker's data center business could significantly outperform Wall Street expectations over the next year.

After falling more than 11% during the month, Nvidia stock gained as investors reacted to the upbeat outlook. Shares traded around $198.37, up roughly 1.7% intraday in New York, with the SemiAnalysis report serving as the primary catalyst behind the move.

In a post published on X on June 30, SemiAnalysis said it expects Nvidia's data center compute revenue in the second half of fiscal 2027 to exceed current consensus estimates by approximately 20%. The research firm attributed its optimism to improving supply-chain conditions, including the resolution of HBM4 memory constraints and increasing production of Nvidia's next-generation Vera Rubin AI platform.

According to SemiAnalysis, earlier concerns surrounding HBM4 memory availability delayed the Rubin rollout, but those issues have now been resolved. The firm added that front-end wafer supply has been built up, creating the conditions for a strong production ramp later this year.

Unlike many traditional Wall Street forecasts, SemiAnalysis said its estimates are based on extensive supply-chain research covering raw materials, semiconductor fabrication, component suppliers, server manufacturers, hyperscale cloud providers, and leading AI laboratories. The firm believes these industry checks provide a more accurate picture of Nvidia's future demand than conventional earnings models.

Its outlook also aligns with recent reporting from Digitimes, which indicated that vendors across the semiconductor supply chain expect Nvidia's transition from the Blackwell architecture to the Rubin platform to be completed during the second quarter of 2026. That timeline is expected to support stronger AI infrastructure demand beginning in the third quarter.

Nvidia officially entered full production of the Vera Rubin platform on June 1, 2026. Initial production shipments are scheduled for this fall and will be delivered to major cloud computing partners, including Amazon Web Services (AWS), Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, Oracle Cloud, CoreWeave, Lambda, Nebius, and Nscale.

The Rubin platform represents a significant technological upgrade over the Blackwell generation. Its HBM4 memory delivers approximately 22 terabytes per second of bandwidth per GPU, roughly three times the bandwidth offered by HBM3e memory. The increased memory performance is expected to improve AI training and inference efficiency, giving hyperscale customers better performance per token while supporting increasingly complex artificial intelligence workloads.

Despite its positive outlook, SemiAnalysis also highlighted one potential concern. The research firm reported that Nvidia's originally announced four-chip Rubin Ultra configuration, unveiled during GTC 2026, was canceled only a few months after its introduction. According to the report, Nvidia replaced the design with a smaller version featuring roughly half the original physical size and proportionally lower performance.

Nvidia has not publicly addressed the reported design modification, leaving uncertainty over whether the revised Rubin Ultra configuration could affect future revenue potential compared with the original product roadmap.

Even so, SemiAnalysis believes the broader AI demand outlook remains highly favorable. If its projections prove accurate, Nvidia's financial performance could surpass current analyst expectations as production accelerates and hyperscale customers expand AI infrastructure investments.

Wall Street consensus currently forecasts fiscal second-quarter 2027 earnings per share of $2.07 on approximately $91.7 billion in revenue, with earnings expected around August 26, 2026. SemiAnalysis argues that these estimates may prove conservative given improving supply conditions and stronger-than-expected demand for Nvidia's next-generation AI computing platforms.