Currency War Series

Monetary policy divergences may be starting to deviate between countries

Dec 10, 2015 02:56 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

EUR/USD closed above 1.10 yesterday. Effectively, it took back losses incurred for the whole of November. Yesterdays short-covering was in response to European Central Bank member Ewald Nowotny blaming market analysts for...

Fed will be up on its tiptoes for some time to come

Dec 10, 2015 02:39 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

One week to go before lift-off and 10Y Treasury yields are still at 2.21%. Thats 20 basis points higher than in mid-October but one certainly would have expected a bigger move given the dramatic shift in Fed expectations...

Bank of Korea policy decoupling

Dec 10, 2015 02:02 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The Bank of Korea is widely expected to stand pat at todays policy meeting. Domestic demand has started to recover and GDP growth has bounced back, reducing the pressure for the BOK to cut rates. Markets no longer look for...

Currency War Series

More ECB policy stimulus is likely, if inflation disappoints

Dec 10, 2015 00:52 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

CPI inflation fell below 2% in early 2013 and has since been on a downward trajectory. It is believed that it has bottomed, but the concern is that the expected recovery in inflation over the next couple of years will be...

RBA to stay on hold as the risks transition

Dec 09, 2015 23:16 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The RBA will likely look through any significant acceleration of tradable inflation. Any acceleration in the targeted core measure of inflation is expected to be much more modest, only returning to the midpoint of the 2-3%...

Bank of England will need to consider Brexit risks

Dec 09, 2015 22:33 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The uncertainty generated ahead of the referendum may not be the perfect recipe for growth. The Bank of England will need to take that into account. For instance, the BoE said in 2012 that the most extreme potential...

Fed interest rate hike may have less of an impact than you think

Dec 09, 2015 13:53 pm UTC| Insights & Views Central Banks

There is a very high chance the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week. It would be the first time the Federal Open Monetary Committee (FOMC) the Feds rate-setting team has lifted its benchmark rate since...