Harris Favored to Win Presidency, But Trump Could Gain if Economy Weakens

Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is currently favored to win the November election, according to analysts at BCA Research. However, they warn that Republican rival Donald Trump’s chances could improve if economic activity slows significantly before the vote.

Harris Holds Slight Edge in Electoral College Predictions

BCA’s presidential models predict a 56% chance of victory for Harris, projecting 303 of the 538 available Electoral College votes. A simple majority of 270 is required to win, with several swing states likely to determine the outcome.

Changes in Swing State Dynamics

Over the past month, Harris' chances have improved in 21 states, including the battleground state of Arizona. However, the analysts note that her chances have decreased in Michigan, another key swing state, since August. Arizona is currently the only toss-up state where local economic growth is outpacing the national average, while Michigan’s economic activity has “effectively fallen into contraction.”

Other coincident indices modeled by BCA — which track economic conditions — have also decelerated in swing states such as Wisconsin, Georgia, and Nevada. These shifts in economic momentum could make the race “excruciatingly close” as the Nov. 5 election approaches, according to the analysts.

Impact of Federal Reserve Rate Cut and Potential Republican Upset

“[Democrats] are facing growing pressure from the economy,” the analysts noted. They emphasize the importance of monitoring whether a recent 50-basis point interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve will prevent the economy from cooling too rapidly. While the rate cut has boosted the stock market and created “positive vibes” that support the ruling Democratic party, this effect could still change as the election nears.

“If the economy goes south despite the recent rate cut, [Republicans] could pull off a comeback by November,” the analysts concluded.