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Argentina’s economy unexpectedly contracted in April, highlighting the uneven nature of the country’s recovery under President Javier Milei despite improving long-term growth prospects. Official government data released Monday showed that the monthly economic activity estimator declined 1.5% in April compared with March, a steeper drop than the 1% contraction forecast by Bloomberg Economics.
On an annual basis, Argentina’s economy expanded 1.6% in April, but the result also fell short of economists’ expectations for a 3.3% increase, signaling that the recovery remains fragile even as key export sectors continue to perform well.
The latest figures revealed mixed performance across major industries. Agriculture remained one of the strongest contributors to economic growth, posting a 10.9% increase from a year earlier. Mining and quarrying also delivered robust gains, rising 17.1% as investment and commodity production continued to support the sector.
However, several important parts of the economy weakened. Manufacturing output declined 2.9% year over year, while retail trade fell 3.2%, reflecting softer domestic demand. The fishing industry experienced the sharpest decline, plunging 28.4% compared with April 2025.
Despite the disappointing April data, Argentina’s broader economic outlook remains positive. Gross domestic product grew 0.7% during the first quarter of 2026 from the previous quarter, supported largely by stronger consumer spending. Analysts also expect the country to record its second consecutive year of economic expansion, driven by rising exports from the energy, agriculture, and mining sectors.
According to the Argentine central bank’s May survey of economists, the economy is projected to grow 2.9% in 2026, while inflation is expected to ease to 30.5%. Even so, challenges remain in the labor market. Unemployment continues to increase as the formal workforce has lost nearly 500,000 jobs, underscoring the difficult balance between economic stabilization and employment growth as Milei’s reform agenda moves forward.
