Urban studies: Doing research when every city is different 
World Cup technology: from ref cams to AI analysts, cutting-edge research is changing the game 
Moldova Criticizes Russia Amid Transdniestria Energy Crisis 
AI Memory Boom Sparks Global Chip Supply Crunch 
Stock Futures Dip as Investors Await Key Payrolls Data 
How AI prompting turned writerly description into an everyday skill 
Geopolitical Shocks That Could Reshape Financial Markets in 2025 
Gold's 365-Day EMA Streak Since Oct 2023 Faces Its First Real Test at $3,980 — Break or Bounce to $4,140? 
Fed May Resume Rate Hikes: BofA Analysts Outline Key Scenarios 
J.P. Morgan Sees Potential Vestas Guidance Upgrade Amid Strong Wind Energy Demand 
SpaceX Stock Gets $175 Target as Analysts See Massive Growth Ahead 
Energy Sector Outlook 2025: AI's Role and Market Dynamics 
Today’s space race could turn fatal if we don’t agree on new rules 
Oil Prices Dip Slightly Amid Focus on Russian Sanctions and U.S. Inflation Data 
The pound is rising because the market hopes that Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn will be able to prevent a no-deal. Yesterday, he met with other parties of the opposition in order to find common ground. There were assurances of cooperation, e.g. by means of legislative proposals or a vote of no confidence. The market reacting in a pound positive way to the oppositions’ meeting shows just how desperately it is hoping for a happy ending.
But the risk of a no-deal is still very real. Parliament returns from summer recess next week and the nerve-racking battle about a soft Brexit will go into the next round.
Like most mortals, we have no insight on how the long-running Brexit drama will resolve. All we can say with a degree of confidence is that should the UK crash out of the EU without a deal, currency markets stand a good chance of directionally reprising the price patterns observed in the aftermath of the 2016 referendum.
EURUSD dropped 1.5% in the 3-months following the shock result and a more substantial 8% in 6-months; EURGBP climbed north of 10% over this period, much of it on the day of the vote; and the realized correlation between the two fell to as low as -90%.
Yet EURUSD vs EURGBP 3M implied correlation today is marked at +14%, Euro has an independent bearish catalyst at play in the form of potentially ECB easing including QE in September, and the pricing of bearish Euro options is sweetened by multi-year highs in forward points.
Consider the following as no-deal Brexit trade: 3M (EURUSD < 1% OTMS, EURGBP > 2% OTMS) costs 11% (individual digitals 26% and 34.7% respectively). Courtesy: JPM
