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Stay short in USDTHB:
Parameters: Sell USDTHB, target 32.60, stop 34.60.
Thesis: Further THB gains are likely on the strong fundamental balance of payments support, foreign investor inflows, stable politics, and neutral valuations on a real trade-weighted basis, strengthening growth, and favorable real yields.
Key levels & strategy: We recommend entering the position at current levels. Technicals suggest that next downside levels are 33.20-33.50, and immediate resistance is at 34.45.
What to watch for: Geopolitical tensions, China growth disappointment, or market re-pricing of Fed tightening could weigh on THB.
Bullish KRW risk scenarios:
1) China growth surprises on the upside;
2) US CapEx cycle accelerates;
3) The domestic fiscal stimulus is stronger than expected
Bullish INR risk scenarios:
1) Global crude oil prices to weaken further
2) The stock of foreign equity holdings at USD165bn is also just 7.0% of GDP – half the level for the NJA -10 complex. Even so, concerns over the richness of equity valuations cannot be dismissed. At 18.3 times currently, the 12-month forward P/E of the NSE500 is well above the 10-year average of 14.4%, and any repricing in US Treasuries term premiums could cause a correction.
