Wall Street Analysts Weigh in on Latest NFP Data 
Tech Stocks Surge in Asia; Experts Warn ‘Cooling AI Boom May Hit NVIDIA’s Gains Hard’ 
Bitcoin Hits $100K Milestone Amid Optimism Over Trump Policies 
U.S. Treasury Yields Expected to Decline Amid Cooling Economic Pressures 
China's Refining Industry Faces Major Shakeup Amid Challenges 
Gold Soars to One-Month High as Weak Jobs Data Fuels Fed Rate Cut Speculation 
Oil Prices Dip Slightly Amid Focus on Russian Sanctions and U.S. Inflation Data 
Gold Hits Record High as Investors Eye Fed Chair Powell’s Speech on Tariffs 
Asian Markets React to Tariff Reports and Fed Policy Shifts 
Stock Futures Dip as Investors Await Key Payrolls Data 
Bank of America Posts Strong Q4 2024 Results, Shares Rise 
U.S. Stocks Hit Unprecedented Peaks Amid Growing Speculation of Federal Rate Cuts 
Home ownership is slipping out of reach. It’s time to rethink our fear of ‘forever renting’ 
S&P 500 Rises Amid Cyclical Stock Gains, Inflation Data Looms 
Bitcoin Whales Acquire $4.3B in BTC Amid Market Decline, Signaling Potential Bottom 
US Futures Rise as Investors Eye Earnings, Inflation Data, and Wildfire Impacts 
IMF Warns Japan of Market Volatility and Interest Rate Risks 
The S&P 500's growth for Q4 2024 heavily depends on technology stocks, according to Barclays strategists. Historically, January’s performance often sets the tone for large-cap US equities. Barclays analysis shows that a January decline typically results in a median annual return of +2.5%, while gains exceeding 1.5% in January are linked to a median return of +11.4% for the year.
Barclays strategists, led by Venu Krishna, noted that downward revisions in sectors excluding technology are 300 basis points higher than average. This indicates bearish sentiment for non-tech sectors as the earnings season begins. Consensus estimates predict that most non-tech sectors will report Q4 earnings below their long-term medians, setting low expectations for upcoming results.
Although year-over-year earnings per share (EPS) growth for the S&P 500 excluding Big Tech is expected to rebound in Q1 2025, Q4 2024 projections fell short due to negative operating leverage and related revisions. Barclays’ consensus EPS forecast for fiscal year 2025 dropped by $1, now at $274 compared to their $271 estimate.
Despite some deceleration expected in the first half of 2025, Barclays anticipates Big Tech to deliver EPS growth well above long-term medians. The strategists also highlight that the S&P 500’s margin improvement for Q4 2024 is likely to rely on the continued strength of technology giants.
As the earnings season progresses, technology's influence on the S&P 500 underscores its critical role in driving market performance, with Big Tech remaining a key focus for investors seeking growth.
