Market Roundup
•UK Apr Retail Sales (MoM) -2.3%,-0.5% forecast,-0.2% previous
•German GDP (QoQ) (Q1)0.2%, 0.2% forecast,-0.3% previous
•German GDP (YoY) (Q1)-0.2%, -0.2% forecast,-0.2% previous
•UK Apr Core Retail Sales (YoY) -3.0%,-1.1% forecast, 0.4% previous
•UK Apr Core Retail Sales (MoM) -2.0%, -0.6% forecast, -0.3% previous
•UK Apr Retail Sales (YoY) -2.7%, -0.2% forecast,0.8% previous
•Swiss Employment Level (Q1)5.484M, 5.488M previous
•French May Business Survey 99,100 forecast,100 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 US Corporate Profits (QoQ) 2.7% previous
•12:30 US Apr Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 2.3% previous
•12:30 US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) 0.2% previous
•12:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) -2.1% previous
•12:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) -0.1% forecast,-0.1% previous
•12:30 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) -0.9% forecast, 2.6% previous
•12:30 US Apr Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•12:30 Canada Mar Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.3% forecast,-0.3% previous
•12:30 US Apr Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) 0.1% forecast,0.2% previous
•14:00 US May Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 3.1% forecast,3.0% previous
•14:00 US May Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 3.5% forecast,3.2% previous
•14:00 US May Michigan Consumer Expectations 66.5 forecast,76.0 previous
•14:00 US May Michigan Consumer Sentiment 67.4 forecast,77.2 previous
•14:00 US May Michigan Current Conditions 68.8 forecast,79.0 previous
•14:30 USAtlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) 3.6% forecast,3.6% previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 497 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 604 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•13:35 US Fed Waller Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro rose on Friday after data showed German economy grew first three months of 2024.The German economy grew by 0.2% in the first three months of 2024, the statistics office reported on Friday, confirming preliminary data.Despite declining inflation, household consumption did not recover in the first quarter, falling 0.4% on the previous quarter. Government expenditure was also 0.4% lower than in the previous quarter, the data showed. The euro was helped off a nine-month low to the pound on Thursday when a key European wage indicator picked up.The euro was up 0.1% at $1.08225, but was down 0.5% for the week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0886(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0908(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0830 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0796(50% fib).
GBP/USD: The pound held broadly steady on the surprise announcement this week of a July general election kept sterling near two-month highs. The retail sales volume dropped 2.3 percent on a monthly basis, following a revised 0.2 percent drop in March, the Office for National Statistics said. Economists had forecast a 0.5 percent drop for April. So far in May, sterling is up against most major currencies and heading for its best monthly performance since November against the dollar, with a gain of 1.6%. Sterling held around two-month highs, trading at $1.2699, shrugging off weak British retail sales. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2755(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2787(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2686(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2623(50% fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Friday as surprisingly strong U.S. economic data has left markets on edge about the outlook for U.S. inflation and interest rates.May figures showed U.S. business activity accelerated to the highest level in just over two years and manufacturers reported surging input prices, prompting a pullback in U.S. interest rate cut expectations and a rise in government bond yields . Minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting published this week showed a live debate among policymakers as to whether current rates were sufficiently restrictive to cool inflation.Traders have pushed out the timing of the first Fed rate cut to December.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9150 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9199 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9131(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9093(50% fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar steadied against yen on Friday as hawkish tone adopted in the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest minutes kept dollar bid. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting published this week showed a live debate among policymakers as to whether current rates were sufficiently restrictive to cool inflation. Traders have pushed out the timing of the first Fed rate cut to December. Just 36 basis points' worth of cuts are priced in for 2024 now, down from 50 bps - equivalent to two quarter-point cuts a week ago. Thursday’s business surveys from S&P Global supported the conviction among many traders that the Fed may keep rates higher for longer. The dollar is up almost 1% this week on the Japanese yen to 157.11 yen. Strong resistance can be seen at 157.08(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.06(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.04(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 154.66(50% fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks lost ground on Friday, putting them on course for weekly declines, as signs of persistent U.S. price pressures and a recovering euro zone economy dashed hopes of several interest rate cuts from major central banks this year.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last down by 0.33 percent, Germany's Dax was last down by 0.26 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.15 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Friday, but were headed for their first weekly fall in three as expectations for interest rate cuts began to fade following the hawkish tone adopted in the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest minutes.
Spot gold rose 0.54% to $2,340.95 per ounce, as of 1018 GMT, after hitting its lowest since May 9 earlier. Bullion hit a record high of $2,449.89 on Monday, but has fallen about 5% since then.U.S. gold futures was up 0.21% at $2,342.10
Oil prices were stable on Friday but poised to show a weekly loss under pressure from lingering concerns that sticky inflation could prolong higher interest rates and curb fuel demand.
Brent crude futures fell by 25 cents, or 0.31%, to $81.11 a barrel by 1151 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 21 cents, or 0.27%, at $76.66.
