Market Roundup
• Italian Feb Retail Sales (MoM) 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
• Italian Feb Retail Sales (YoY) 2.4%, 1.0% previous
•Greek Feb Industrial Production (YoY) 1.6%, 10.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Mar Real Earnings (MoM) 0.0% previous
•12:30 Canada Feb Building Permits (MoM) -4.3% forecast,13.5% previous
•12:30 US Mar CPI Index, s.a 311.05 previous
•12:30 US Mar CPI, n.s.a (MoM) 0.62% previous
•12:30 US Mar CPI Index, n.s.a. 312.10 forecast, 310.33 previous
•12:30 US Mar Core CPI Index 316.57 forecast, 315.57 previous
•12:30 US Mar Core CPI (MoM) 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•12:30 US Mar CPI (YoY) 3.4% forecast,3.2% previous
•12:30 US Mar CPI (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.4% previous
•12:30 US Mar Core CPI (YoY) 3.7% forecast,3.8% previous
•13:45 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision 5.00% forecast, 5.00% previous
•13:45 Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report
•14:00 US Feb Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 0.5% forecast,-0.3% previous
•14:00 US Feb Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) -1.7% previous
•14:30 US Distillate Fuel Production -0.208M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Production 0.767M previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -0.377M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories 0.900M forecast,3.210M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•13:45 Canada BoC Rate Statement
•14:30 Canada BOC Press Conference
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro little changed against weaker dollar on Wednesday as caution dominated the mood ahead of U.S. March consumer prices. The data, due at 1230 GMT, could offer clues on when the most influential central bank might begin to reduce interest rates. Market bets for a June rate cut currently stand at 53% after recent data pointed to a still resilient economy.Later in the week, the focus will be on the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting, where traders expect rates to be left unchanged. The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0869. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0874(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0903(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0845 (5EMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0824 (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened against the dollar on Wednesday as traders awaited crucial U.S. inflation data due later in the day and UK GDP data this week. Investors were also cautious ahead of U.S. inflation data and UK GDP data this week that could set the tone for the pace of monetary policy easing across regions this year.Investors are closely watching market bets on the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve policy paths. Markets have priced in 67 basis points of interest rate cuts by the BoE in 2024. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2692(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2764 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2653(5EMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2627(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased slightly against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as investors were cautious ahead of US inflation data .Hotly anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) is at the top of most investors' minds as they tweak expectations on the timing and extent of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting phase, following robust economic data such as last Friday's blockbuster employment report. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against six rivals, edged 0.04% lower to 104.04. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9090(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9141 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9030(5EMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8689 (38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against yen on Wednesday but upward movement was constrained by the threat of intervention, which prevented the dollar from surpassing the closely monitored level of 152 yen. No fresh warnings were issued as the yen remained close to its 34-year low versus the dollar ahead of the U.S. data.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, however, brushed aside market speculation that the yen's sharp falls could force the central bank to raise interest rates. The Japanese currency was little changed at 151.84 per dollar .Strong resistance can be seen at 152.00(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.26(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.13 (April 4th low), a break below could take the pair towards 150.43(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Wednesday, led by gains in technology-related stocks ahead of a crucial inflation report out of the United States, while Barry Callebaut was on track for its best day in over five-and-a-half years following results.
At (GMT 12:10 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.81 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.75 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.57 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices rose on Wednesday after two days of losses as a deadlock in Gaza ceasefire talks renewed uncertainty about the security of supply from the Middle East and offset a bigger-than-expected build in U.S. crude inventories.
Brent crude futures were up 30 cents, or 0.3%, at $89.72 per barrel at 1010 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 29 cents, or 0.3%, to $85.52.
Gold prices held near the previous session's record high on Wednesday, supported by safe-haven demand and an uncertain outlook for the Chinese economy.
Spot gold edged down by a little more than 0.2% to $2,347.25 an ounce by 1138 GMT, having hit a record $2,365.09 on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures gained 0.2% to $2,366.40.
