Market Roundup
•German Jan Car Registration (MoM) 81.50% forecast,-31.50% previous
•German Jan Car Car Registration (YoY) 17.10% forecast,4.60% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 221K forecast, 224K previous
• 13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,878K forecast,1,898K previous
• 13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 207.75K previous
•15:00 US Dec Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) 0.0% previous
•15:00 US Dec Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 0.4% forecast,-0.2% previous
•15:00 US Natural Gas Storage -73B forecast,-197B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•14:00 UK BoE MPC Member Dhingra Speaks
•14:15 ECB's Elderson Speaks
•15:00 UK BoE MPC Member Mann
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Thursday as markets awaited comments from European Central Bank board members, including ECB chief economist Philip Lane later in the day. The ECB has been holding interest rates at record highs since September but the debate over policy easing is intensifying and markets see the bank starting to reverse course this spring given weak growth and fading price pressures. The dollar index was last up 0.2% at 104.23, having reached 104.60 on Monday, its highest level since November 14, propelled by Friday's blowout jobs report.The euro was down 0.1% at $1.0761, holding above its lowest level since Nov. 14 at $1.0722 hit on Tuesday.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0803(( 38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0861 ( 50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0722(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0710(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Britain's pound eased against the dollar on Thursday as policymakers continue to push back against expectations for early rate cuts. On Wednesday, Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden, the Monetary Policy Committee's newest member, said she was now thinking about how long interest rates would need to stay at their current level, in a sign that rates are not expected to fall in the near term. Sterling was last down 0.1% against the dollar at $1.2620, having plumbed to its lowest level since Dec. 13 on Monday at $1.25175. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2639(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2670(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2595(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2528(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Thursday as market awaiting fresh U.S. economic data for further rate cut clues. Investors will keep a close eye on the U.S. weekly jobless claims data scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT. This follows last week's monthly non-farm payrolls report, which exceeded expectations, indicating continued robustness in the labor market. The market is pricing in around a 20% chance the Fed will begin to cut rates in March, down significantly from the start of the year, and around a 60% chance of a 25 basis point cut in May, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8748(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8800(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8670(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8601(50%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar steadied against the yen on Thursday as investors awaited further signals regarding the timing of the first interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year. Fed officials want to hold off on cutting interest rates until they have more confidence that inflation is headed down to 2%, and gave a range of reasons for feeling little urgency to start easing policy soon or to move quickly once they do. Investors will be watching out for U.S. weekly jobless claims data due at 1330 GMT after last week's monthly non-farm payrolls report came in stronger-than-expected, showing signs of persistent strength in the labor market. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.03(23.6%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.63(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 148.21 (Daily low)a break below could take the pair towards 147.50(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares edged higher on Thursday, propped up by strong performances from consumer staples stocks including Unilever, while losses in shipping giant Maersk and drugmaker AstraZeneca following results kept gains in check.
At (GMT 12:57 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.11 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.40 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.68 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Thursday, with investors awaiting more cues on the timing of first interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year, while palladium prices dropped to a fresh five-year low as demand concerns persist.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,037.20 per ounce, as of 1040 GMT. U.S. gold futures edged 0.1% up to $2,052.60 per ounce.
Oil prices rose on Thursday as investors weighed the implications of Israel's rejection of Hamas' ceasefire offer and surprise declines in US fuel stocks.
Brent crude futures rose 81 cents, or 1.02%, to $80.02 a barrel by 1239 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 72 cents, or 0.97%, at $74.58.
