Australia’s Labor Government Poised for Narrow Election Win Amid Trump Policy Backlash

Australia’s center-left Labor government appears on track to secure re-election in a tightly contested national vote this weekend, according to two opinion polls released Thursday. A RedBridge-Accent poll conducted April 24–29 and published by News Corp (NASDAQ:NWSA) shows Labor leading 53% to 47% under the country’s preferential voting system. The results suggest Labor could either retain power outright or form a minority government, reversing voter sentiment from February when Prime Minister Anthony Albanese faced growing disapproval.

A key driver behind Labor’s late surge is growing support from Millennials and Gen Z voters, who now account for 43% of the electorate. One in five respondents in these younger demographics reported changing their vote during the campaign. Among top voter concerns is the potential global impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies. Around 48% of Australians cited Trump-related uncertainty among their top five concerns, reflecting broader unease over international stability.

Opposition leader Peter Dutton, whose platform includes proposals reminiscent of Trump-era politics—including a Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) modeled after Elon Musk’s ideas—has faced declining popularity. Although Dutton later dropped plans to mandate full-time office returns for government employees, public comparisons with Trump have hurt his standing. A recent poll showed Australians’ trust in the U.S. has reached a record low.

Meanwhile, a separate YouGov poll predicts a stronger outcome for Labor, projecting up to 85 seats in the 150-seat lower house and a potential 11-seat net loss for the opposition—its worst result since 1946. Despite favorable polling, Albanese cautioned that the election remains highly competitive.

The latest data highlights generational shifts and global policy concerns as central to Australia’s 2025 federal election outcome.