Market Roundup
• US ADP Employment Change Weekly 15.50K, 12.80K previous
• US Existing Home Sales (Feb) 4.09M, 3.89M forecast, 4.02M previous
• US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) 1.7%, -5.9% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 23:50 Japan PPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 23:50 Japan PPI (YoY) (Feb) 2.2% forecast, 2.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Tuesday as investors' assessed evolving developments in the Middle East conflict . The market remained hopeful that a near-term resolution could be reached, despite an announcement by Iran's Revolutionary Guards that the country would not allow any oil to leave the Middle East until U.S.-Israeli attacks ceased, which prompted threats from Trump that he would strike back "20 times harder" if they blocked crude exports. The comments were quickly rejected as "nonsense" by Iran's Revolutionary Guards, but they seemed to hold traders back from deepening worries about an oil shock and put them in a wait-and-watch stance. Investors are worried that could curtail global growth by acting as a tax on business and consumption, while at the same time pushing central banks away from easing rates. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1661(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1738(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1507(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1451(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound initially firmed but gave up ground on Tuesday as hopes of a de-escalation in the Middle East conflict pushed oil prices lower and eased inflation concerns for Britain's import-dependent economy.Trump's comments on Monday led to a nearly 11% drop in oil prices, even as Iran's Revolutionary Guards vowed to block any Middle East exports if U.S. and Israeli attacks continue, while Britain worked with allies to safeguard shipping.British assets have been hit harder as investors view the country as more exposed than many other European countries to an energy price shock due in part to its weak public finances and its reliance on gas.An official at the Office for Budget Responsibility said Britain's inflation rate could end the year at around 3% rather than the roughly 2% rate assumed by the country's fiscal forecasters if energy prices remain at current levels. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3328(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3489(50%fib)).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3118(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3125(23.6%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged lower against dollar as improved risk appetite on rising hopes the Middle East war would soon end offset a pullback in oil prices.The United States and Israel launched their most intense airstrikes yet on Iran Tuesday, even as markets bet that Donald Trump may soon end the war.Oil prices fell 10% to $85.28 a barrel as concerns over prolonged supply disruptions eased, though prices remained above pre-conflict levels.Canada’s January trade data due Thursday and February jobs report later this week could shape expectations for next week’s Bank of Canada rate decision. Investors have moved in recent days to price in an interest rate hike this year after the spike in oil prices raised concerns globally about the outlook for inflation.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3647 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3683 (March 6th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3554(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.349(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The US dollar edged higher but gain were limited on Tuesday as investors' appetite for riskier assets remained subdued amid evolving developments in the Middle East conflict .Trump said the war could end well before the timeline he initially laid out, but threatened to escalate attacks should Tehran block oil shipments from the Strait of Hormuz.Trump's comments helped ease concerns, reducing buying pressure on the dollar and sending oil prices down about 15% on Tuesday, a day after they soared to their highest levels since 2022. Iran's Revolutionary Guards dismissed Trump's remarks as "nonsense" and said the blockade would continue until attacks from the U.S. and Israel end. The dollar was 0.1% up against the yen at 157.86. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.29(Higher BB) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.72(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.44 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European shares soared Tuesday on hopes Trump may soon end the U.S.–Israeli war on Iran, boosting investor sentiment.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 1.59percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 2.39 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1.79 percent.
Wall Street stocks edged lower and oil prices pulled back Tuesday after Donald Trump said the Middle East war could be “over soon,” even as the U.S. and Israel intensified airstrikes on Iran.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.07 percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.21 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.01 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices plunged over 11% on Tuesday—the steepest one‑day drop since 2022 after Donald Trump predicted a quick end to the Iran war that had disrupted global crude flows.
Brent futures fell $11.16, or 11%, to settle at $87.80 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $83.45 a barrel, down $11.32, or 11.9%.
Gold rose nearly 2% Tuesday, supported by a weaker dollar and easing inflation worries as oil prices fell on hopes the Middle East conflict could end soon.
Spot gold was up 1.9% at $5,231.79 per ounce as of 1:31 p.m. ET (1731 GMT). U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled 2.7% higher at $5242.10.
