Market Roundup
•Japan Foreign Reserves (USD) (Feb) 1,410.7B, 1,394.8B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 10:00 EU GDP (QoQ) (Q4): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
• 10:00 EU GDP (YoY) (Q4): 1.3%, 1.4% forecast, 1.4% previous
• 10:00 EU Employment Change (YoY) (Q4): 0.7%, 0.6% forecast, 0.6% previous
• 10:00 EU Employment Overall (Q4): 1,72,516.6K, 1,70,411.4K forecast, 1,70,411.4K previous
• 10:00 EU Employment Change (QoQ) (Q4): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 10:00 EU Greek Quarterly Unemployment Rate (Q4): 8.2% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Friday as heightened uncertainty over a widening Middle East conflict kept investors cautious. On the sixth day of the war, Iran launched a series of attacks on Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Admiral Brad Cooper, who leads U.S. forces in the Middle East, said that the U.S. has enough munitions to continue its bombardment indefinitely.The U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran launched on Saturday has struck targets across the country and triggered Iranian retaliation.Meanwhile, U.S. data on Thursday showed initial jobless claims unchanged last week, while layoffs dropped sharply in February. Investors now await the U.S. employment report for February, due later in the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1688(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1739(Oct 16th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1589(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1476(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged higher but gains were limited on Friday as the escalating conflict in the Middle East kept investors cautious. The war intensified on Thursday, with U.S. and Israeli jets hitting areas across Iran, and Gulf cities coming under renewed bombardment.In a phone interview with Reuters, Trump said Mojtaba Khamenei, a son of the late supreme leader who has been considered a favorite to succeed his father, was an unlikely choice. The spike in energy prices from the Middle East war has stoked fears of a resurgence in inflation, with overnight index swaps (OIS) showing shifts in rate outlooks for major central banks.Rate-easing expectations from the Bank of England have been pared back , while money markets increased bets on European Central Bank rate hikes as early as this year . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3403(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3459(Jan 2nd low).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3248(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3183(Dec 2nd low).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed on Friday as markets attempted to assess the broader economic impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict. U.S. dollar safe-haven demand eased as oil prices retreated slightly from recent highs, helping risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar recover.The conflict escalated on Thursday as U.S. and Israeli jets struck targets across Iran and Gulf cities came under renewed bombardment. Reports of attacks on oil tankers in Gulf waters and Chinese measures to reduce fuel exports sent crude oil prices up $6 a barrel overnight. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser is scheduled to speak in New York, and his remarks may provide further guidance on Australia’s interest rate outlook and inflation risks. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7030(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7137(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6960(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6900(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Friday as Japanese yen weakened amid BoJ policy uncertainty and escalating Middle East conflict.The conflict escalated further on Thursday, with U.S. and Israeli jets striking targets across Iran and cities in the Gulf region coming under renewed bombardment as the war widened.Kazuo Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, warned that the Middle East conflict could hurt Japan’s economy and keep interest rates on hold for longer.The remarks highlight the challenge the BOJ faces in timing the next interest rate hike, as uncertainty over the Middle East conflict clouds the outlook for a fragile economy.Looking Ahead, Market participants awaiting Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, with expectations around +59K for February, following January’s stronger-than-expected +130K reading.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.29(Higher BB) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.72(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.44 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
Asia stocks fell on Friday and were set for their sharpest weekly decline in six years, while oil prices were heading for their biggest weekly gain in four years as the Middle East conflict showed little sign of easing.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 0.33% , Hang Seng was up at 1.70 %, China A50 was up at 0.22 %
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Friday, rebounding from a more than 1% decline in the previous session, as investors turned to safe-haven demand amid rising Middle East conflict uncertainty.
Spot gold was up 1% at $5,128.39 per ounce, as of 0506 GMT. The metal has lost roughly 3% so far this week, set to snap a four-week winning streak, as fading rate-cut prospects and higher energy prices stoked inflation concerns. U.S. gold futures for April delivery were up 1.2% at $5,137.50.
Oil prices fell on Friday for the first time in six days as the U.S. considered intervening in the futures market to curb price rises and issued waivers for Russian oil purchases to ease supply shortages caused by the Middle East conflict.
Brent crude futures were down 95 cents, or 1.1%, to $84.46 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate was down $1.08, or 1.3%, to $79.93 as of 0440 GMT.
