Market Roundup
•US Initial Jobless Claims 213K, 215K forecast, 213K previous
•US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q4): 2.8%, 2.0% forecast, -1.8% previous.
•US Import Price Index (MoM) (Jan): 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q4): 2.8%, 1.9% forecast, 5.2% previous.
•US Export Price Index (MoM) (Jan): 0.6%, 0.3% forecast, 0.6% previous.
•US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,868K, 1,850K forecast, 1,822K previous.
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 215.75K, 220.50K previous.
•US Export Price Index (YoY) (Jan): 2.6%, 3.4% previous.
•US Import Price Index (YoY) (Jan): -0.1%, 0.0% previous.
•US Natural Gas Storage: -132B, -122B forecast, -52B previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro slipped on Thursday as escalating tensions in the Middle East lifted oil prices and renewed concerns about inflation. The situation intensified after a U.S. submarine reportedly sank an Iranian warship near Sri Lanka, while NATO air defenses intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile aimed at Turkey.The conflict escalated further as the son of Ali Khamenei emerged as a potential successor, signaling that Iran may resist external pressure following the military campaign launched by the United States and Israel, which has unsettled global markets. On the data frontThe number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits was unchanged last week, while layoffs dropped sharply in February, consistent with stable labor market conditions. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1688(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1739(Oct 16th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1589(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1476(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound fell on Thursday as the escalating Middle East conflict kept investors cautious and boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Sentiment toward the currency was also weighed down by domestic concerns after recent data showed weak economic growth in the UK during the final quarter of last year.Political pressure has increased after Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party lost a local election in Manchester, while he has faced criticism over his stance on the United States–Israel conflict with Iran.Earlier in the week, British finance minister Rachel Reeves delivered a budget update indicating that inflation and government borrowing are expected to be lower than previously forecast. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3403(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3459(Jan 2nd low).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3248(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3183(Dec 2nd low).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as fading hopes for a quick end to the Middle East conflict boosted demand for safe-haven currencies, including the greenback.Rising oil prices have also renewed concerns about inflation, potentially reducing the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.Oil prices jumped about 8.2% to around $80.80 a barrel as the conflict disrupted supplies and shipping routes, prompting some major Middle Eastern producers to curb output.However, Canada’s status as a major oil producer has helped the loonie perform relatively better than several other currencies in the Group of Ten. The loonie was trading 0.4% lower at 1.3690 per U.S. dollar after moving in a range of 1.3616 to 1.3716. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3716 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3764 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3644(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3542 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Thursday as an escalating conflict in the Middle East kept investors jittery and drove demand for safe-haven assets.Earlier hopes of a de-escalation gave way to a fresh bout of uncertainty, with Iran warning that Washington would "bitterly regret" the sinking of an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka.The conflict entered its sixth day with more intensive bombing, while Iran vowed to retaliate anywhere for a U.S. attack on a ship thousands of miles from the battle zone.The dollar index =USD, which measures the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was last up 0.5% at 99.26.The market is now focused on Friday's nonfarm payrolls report. A Reuters poll has forecasted new jobs of 59,000 in January, down 130,000 in December, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, unchanced from the previous month's level.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.29(Higher BB) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.72(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.44 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European stocks closed sharply lower on Thursday, tracking declines in North American markets as the escalating Middle East conflict heightened concerns about risks to the European economy.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 1.45 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.61 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 1.49 percent.
U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday as the Middle East conflict entered its sixth day, pushing oil prices higher and raising concerns about inflation and potential delays to Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Dow Jones closed down by 1.61 percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.57 percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.26 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices settled sharply higher as the war disrupted supplies and shipping, prompting some major Middle Eastern producers to cut output.
U.S. crude CLc1 settled up 8.51%, or $6.35, at $81.01 a barrel while Brent LCOc1 rose to $85.41 per barrel, up 4.93% or $4.01 on the day.
Spot gold fell 0.98% to $5,085.79 an ounce. U.S. gold futures fell 1.25% to $5,056.30 an ounce.
