Market Roundup
• Japan Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Dec) -0.6%, -0.4% forecast, -1.0% previous
• Japan Leading Index (MoM) (Dec) 1.1%, 0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
• Japan Leading Index (Dec) 111.0, 110.2 forecast, 109.9 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 09:00 EU M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Jan) 2.9% forecast, 2.8% previous
• 09:00 EU M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Jan) 2.9% forecast, 2.8% previous
• 09:00 EU Loans to Non Financial Corporations (Jan) 3.1% forecast, 3.0% previous
• 09:00 EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) (Jan) 3.1% forecast, 3.0% previous
• 09:00 EU Italian Business Confidence (Feb) 89.2 previous
• 09:00 EU Italian Consumer Confidence (Feb) 97.2 forecast, 96.8 previous
• 10:00 EU Industrial Sentiment (Feb) -6.1 forecast, -6.8 previous
• 10:00 EU Business and Consumer Survey (Feb) 99.8 forecast, 99.4 previous
• 10:00 EU Services Sentiment (Feb) 7.5 forecast, 7.2 previous
• 10:00 EU Consumer Confidence (Feb) -12.2 forecast, -12.4 previous
• 10:00 EU Business Climate (Feb) -0.41 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Thursday as investors were cautious amid uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy and U.S.-Iran talks. The U.S. tariff rate for some countries will rise to 15% or higher from the newly imposed 10%, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Wednesday, without naming any specific trading partners or giving further details.Iran and the U.S. are scheduled to hold the latest round of talks in Geneva on Thursday aimed at resolving their longstanding nuclear dispute and averting new U.S. strikes on Iran following a large-scale military buildup.Meanwhile,investors awaited the weekly jobless claims data, due later in the day, for more clues on the Fed's monetary policy path. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1872(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1974(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1783(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1724(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower on Thursday as lingering uncertainty over Washington's latest tariff plans kept investors cautious. The U.S. tariff rate for some countries will rise to 15% or higher from the newly imposed 10%, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Wednesday, without naming any specific trading partners or giving further details. U.S. tariffs have rerouted trade, but not dented it as much as feared, allowing larger-than-expected economic growth in certain developing markets, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development said on Thursday. Growth in the 40 countries covered by the development finance institution rose by a larger-than-forecast 3.4%, but the bank warned that continued trade turmoil could yet derail growth in some of the economies. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3537(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3591(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3487 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3368(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed on Thursday an improvement in overall risk sentiment supported Australian dollar. The pair remains elevated following Wednesday’s hotter-than-expected inflation data, which reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will remain cautious on policy easing.RBA Governor Michele Bullock reiterated the need for patience in determining the future path of the official cash rate, signaling that policymakers are not in a rush to adjust settings.On the data front, Australia’s fourth-quarter capital expenditure rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, slightly above market expectations of 0.0%. However, spending on plant and machinery declined 1.7% q/q, highlighting uneven business investment trends Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7136(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7161(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7053(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6700(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar firmed on Thursday as yen dipped after a report said that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi had told the central bank chief she had reservations about future rate hikes. The report signals potential friction over monetary policy that could complicate the BOJ's plan to steadily raise rates and rekindle currency market concerns that Takaichi wants to run the economy hot with low interest rates and high government spending.The yen has been sliding for years thanks to Japan's low interest rates and has been under pressure since Takaichi came to power in October on concerns that she would further strain a stretched national budget. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.48(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.84(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.94 (SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 154.32 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks edged higher on Thursday after strong earnings from Nvidia, but worries about AI disruption and higher costs persisted. The yen remained under pressure amid doubts over further rate hikes in Japan.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 0.41% , South Korea’s KOSPIwas up at 3.67 %, China A50 was up at 0.89%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose slightly on Thursday, supported by a weaker dollar and safe-haven buying as uncertainty around U.S. tariff policy and U.S.–Iran talks weighed on market sentiment.
Spot gold was up 0.5% at $5,195.99 per ounce, as of 0639 GMT. Bullion had hit a more than three-week high on Tuesday.U.S. gold futures for April delivery were down 0.2% at $5,213.50.
Oil prices edged higher on Thursday as investors assessed whether U.S.–Iran talks could help prevent a military conflict that could disrupt supply, though gains were limited by an increase in U.S. crude inventories.
Brent futures were trading at $71.06 per barrel, up 21 cents, or 0.3%, at 0720 GMT. WTI futures rose 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $65.58 per barrel.
