Market Roundup
• US Current Account (Q4): -190.7B, -211.0B forecast, -239.1B previous
• US Import Price Index (MoM) (Feb): 1.3%, 0.6% forecast, 0.6% previous
• US Export Price Index (MoM) (Feb): 1.5%, 0.5% forecast, 0.6% previous
• US Export Price Index (YoY) (Feb): 3.5% , 2.6% previous
• US Import Price Index (YoY) (Feb): 1.3% , -0.1% previous
• US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: 3.421M, – forecast, 0.944M previous
• US Gasoline Production: 0.309M -0.462M previous
• US Crude Oil Imports: 0.846M -0.692M previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•05:00 Japan BoJ Core CPI (YoY) 1.6% forecast,1.7% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower against the dollar on Wednesday as traders remained cautious over efforts by U.S. President Donald Trump to end the war with Iran. Trump said on Tuesday that progress was being made in negotiations, including securing a key concession from Tehran.However, Tehran denied any direct talks, with the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency quoting a military spokesperson as saying the U.S. is “negotiating with itself.”Uncertainty over whether and when oil exports from the Persian Gulf will resume, along with signs of economic damage from surging oil prices, has so far limited market reaction to Trump’s conciliatory stance.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1615(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1653 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1541(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1487(March 23rd low).
GBP/USD: The British pound weakened against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as traders remained cautious over efforts to end the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, weighing its potential economic impact. Israel and Iran exchanged airstrikes, while Tehran rejected President Donald Trump’s claim that Washington was holding direct negotiations to resolve the war. Meanwhile, official data showed British consumer price inflation remained at 3% in February, unchanged from January, with expectations of further rises as the Middle East conflict pushes up prices. Markets currently price in a roughly 67% chance of a Bank of England rate hike in April, with at least two additional increases anticipated by year-end. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3441(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3512(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3268(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3213(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar fell to a two-month low against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as oil prices dropped amid hopes for a ceasefire in the Middle East, while investors weighed signs of domestic economic weakness. Canada’s economy has been hit by steep U.S. tariffs on key sectors, including autos, steel, and aluminum. Exports fell 14.6% year-over-year in January, and employment dropped by 84,000 in February. Last Wednesday, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said it was too early to gauge the war’s impact, as the central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25%.The loonie was trading 0.3% lower at 1.3809 per U.S. dollar, or 72.42 U.S. cents, marking its weakest intraday level since January 22..Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3834(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3856(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3770(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3703(61.8%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar inched higher on Wednesday as traders weighed global inflation trends while remaining skeptical about a near-term easing of the Iran conflict. Reports indicated that the U.S. had sent a 15-point plan to Tehran, yet Israel and Iran continued exchanging airstrikes. President Donald Trump claimed progress in talks with Iran, but Tehran denied any direct negotiations, keeping investors cautious. Meanwhile, minutes from the Bank of Japan’s January policy meeting showed many board members favored further rate hikes, though no specific pace was outlined.The U.S. dollar index , measuring the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.23% to 99.41.Against the yen .The U.S. dollar rose 0.23% to 159.05 yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.87(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.01(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 158.08 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European shares climbed over 1% on Wednesday on hopes of an imminent easing of the Middle East conflict, though economic concerns from the war kept investors cautious.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 1.42 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.41 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1.33 percent.
Wall Street’s major indexes gained on Wednesday as hopes of a de-escalation in the Middle East eased concerns over prolonged energy supply disruptions.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.66 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.54 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.77 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose nearly 2% on Wednesday, buoyed by a drop in oil prices that eased inflation worries and tempered expectations of interest rate hikes, even as uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict lingered.
Spot gold was up 1.8% at $4,552.94 per ounce by 1:30 p.m. EDT (1730 GMT) after hitting a four-month low on Monday. U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled 3.4% higher at $4,552.30..
Oil prices slid about 2% on Wednesday after paring deeper losses earlier in the trading session, as Iran reviewed a U.S. proposal to end the war that has disrupted global energy flows from the Persian Gulf.
Brent futures fell $2.27, or 2.2%, to settle at $102.22 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $2.03, or 2.2%, to settle at $90.32.
