Market Roundup
• Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions (Q1): 3.8, 5.3 forecast, 4.7 previous.
• Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks: 385.5B, 973.9B previous.
• Japan Foreign Bonds Buying: 399.8B, -673.1B previous.
•Australia MI Inflation Expectations (Mar) 5.2%,5.0% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 10:10 Italian 7-Year BTP Auction 3.02% previous.
• 10:10 Italian 3-Year BTP Auction 2.36% previous.
• 10:10 Italian 15-Year BTP Auction 4.03% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Thursday as investors sought the liquidity of dollars while shunning currencies from countries that are net energy importers, including Japan and much of Europe. Oil prices rose over $100 a barrel, adding to inflation pressures, as Iran stepped up attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East. Investors took little comfort from the International Energy Agency's plan to release 400 million barrels of oil from its reserves, the largest such move in its history. As part of that, the U.S. said it would release 172 million barrels of oil from next week.The euro slipped 0.2% to $1.1539 , after closing at the weakest level since November last year. Investors are now awaiting the release of January's delayed Personal Consumption Expenditures index on Friday.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1670(March 10th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1739(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1509(March 9th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1459(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower against the dollar on Thursday U.S. dollar firmed on hopes for near‑term U.S. interest‑rate cuts as higher energy prices stoked inflation concerns. Oil prices rose over $100 a barrel, adding to inflation pressures, as Iran stepped up attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East.Iran said the world should brace for $200-a-barrel oil after its forces struck merchant ships on Wednesday, while the International Energy Agency urged a massive release of strategic reserves to blunt one of the worst oil shocks since the 1970s.Tankers in the strait have been stranded for more than a week, and producers have suspended output as storage nears capacity.In economic data, the U.S. consumer price index rose 0.3% in February, matching forecasts and accelerating from January's 0.2% increase. CPI rose 2.4% in the year to February, also in line with expectations. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3444(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3489(50%fib)).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3118(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3125(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased on Thursday as rising risk aversion across global markets pushed investors toward safety of dollar.Risk appetite took a further hit after U.S. President Donald Trump's administration on Wednesday launched a new trade investigation into excess industrial capacity in 16 major trading partners.Iranian strikes reportedly hit oil tankers near Iraq, intensifying geopolitical tensions in the region.Energy markets reacted sharply to the developments. Brent crude surged more than 9% on fears of supply disruptions in the Gulf. Meanwhile, markets imply a 79% chance of a hike at the RBA's meeting on March 17, up from around 20% before the conflict in the Middle East began. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.70176(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7194(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7075(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6981(50%fib)
USD/JPY: The US dollar edged higher on Thursday as the dollar strengthened as surging oil prices raising inflation concerns and increasing the likelihood that central banks may adopt more hawkish policy stances.Oil rose for a second day as fears of a prolonged Iran war outweighed a coordinated reserve release by the International Energy Agency, which approved a record 400 million-barrel release. Meanwhile, weak yen has significantly raised the cost of imports for Japanese businesses, particularly energy and commodities priced in dollars. These higher import costs are a key factor contributing to inflationary pressures in Japan.Japanese Finance Minister Katayama and other government officials are currently engaged in budget discussions in the Japanese parliament, known as the National Diet of Japan, which may partly explain the lack of immediate reaction to currency movements. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.46(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.72(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.44 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
Asian shares fell broadly on Thursday as oil prices surged 9% above $100 a barrel following reports of more ships being struck in the Persian Gulf and terminal shutdowns, raising fears of higher inflation and global borrowing costs.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 0.33% , Hang Seng was up at 1.70 %, China A50 was up at 0.22 %
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Thursday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and fading expectations of near-term U.S. interest-rate cuts as higher energy prices fueled inflation concerns.
Spot gold was down 0.4% at $5,153.79 per ounce as of 0545 GMT. U.S. gold futures for April delivery fell 0.4% to $5,159.20.
Oil prices jumped on Thursday as Iran intensified attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East, raising fears of a prolonged conflict and potential disruptions to crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent futures rose $8.54, or 9.28%, to $100.52 a barrel at 0354 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $7.22, or 8.28%, to $94.47.
