Market Roundup
• Canada Housing Starts (Feb): 250.9K, 243.0K forecast, 240.1K previous.
• Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Feb): 0.4%, 0.2% previous.
• Canada CPI (MoM) (Feb): 0.5%, 0.7% forecast, 0.0% previous.
• Canada Core CPI (YoY) (Feb): 2.3%, 2.6% previous.
• US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Mar): -0.20, 4.00 forecast, 7.10 previous.
• Canada CPI (YoY) (Feb): 1.8%, 2.3% previous.
• Canada Common CPI (YoY) (Feb): 2.4%, 2.6% forecast, 2.7% previous.
• Canada Median CPI (YoY) (Feb): 2.3%, 2.4% forecast, 2.5% previous.
• Canada Trimmed CPI (YoY) (Feb): 2.3%, 2.4% forecast, 2.4% previous.
• Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (Jan): 114.4K, 127.3K previous.
•US Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb): 1.44%, 2.33% previous.
•US Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb): 0.2%, 0.1% forecast, 0.7% previous.
•US Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Feb): 0.2%, 0.1% forecast, 0.8% previous.
•US Capacity Utilization Rate (Feb): 76.3%, 76.2% forecast, 76.3% previous.
•French 12-Month BTF Auction: 2.353%, 2.339% previous.
•French 3-Month BTF Auction: 2.108%, 2.097% previous.
•French 6-Month BTF Auction: 2.199%, 2.217% previous.
•US NAHB Housing Market Index (Mar): 38, 37 forecast, 37 previous.
•US 6-Month Bill Auction: 3.570%, 3.535% previous.
•US 3-Month Bill Auction: 3.610%, 3.605% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•02:00 New Zealand RBNZ Offshore Holdings (Feb): 56.30% previous.
•03:30 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Mar): 4.10%forecast, 3.85% previous.
•04:30 Japan Tertiary Industry Activity Index (Jan): 8.40 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•03:30 RBA Rate Statement.
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Monday as investors prepared for a busy week of central bank meetings, overshadowed by the U.S.–Israel war with Iran. At least eight central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan, are set to announce policy decisions this week in their first meetings since the Middle East conflict began. Markets will closely watch policymakers’ assessments of how rising oil prices could affect inflation and economic growth. Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump urged allies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, adding that his administration is in talks with seven countries on the matter. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1524(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1624 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1405(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1366(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound rose for the first time in a week on Monday, but uncertainty over the longer-term impact on global growth and inflation from war in the Middle East kept it near three-month lows as investors favoured the U.S. dollar as a safe haven.The Bank of England delivers its decision on monetary policy on Thursday and is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%. Markets are close to pricing in one rate hike by the end of the year and investors want to know how closely this aligns with the views of Governor Andrew Bailey and other BoE policymakers. Sterling was last up 0.2% on the day at $1.3248, narrowly above Friday's trough at $1.3222, the lowest since early December. UK jobs data later this week could help to shape expectations for the longer-term outlook for BoE policy. Employment is softening and wage growth, which has proven particularly resilient, has also started to show signs of abating. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3381(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3417(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3229(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3178(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar firmed on Monday as risk sentiment improved amid President Donald Trump’s calls to help unblock the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said he had spoken to French President Emmanuel Macron, who he said was willing to help unblock the Strait of Hormuz. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that Germany would not participate in the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.On the data front, Canadian housing starts rose to 250,900 units in February, up from a revised 240,100 in the previous month, though the increase was below expectations, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.Canada’s annual inflation rate slowed to 1.8% in February from 2.3% in January, below the 1.9% forecast, according to Statistics Canada.This week, investors will watch the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada for policy signals as the U.S.–Israel war on Iran fuels inflation concerns and dims hopes for rate cuts.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3748(Higher BB ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3801(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3660(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3567(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The US dollar edged eased on Monday as the yen gained support after comments from Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama on the recent sharp depreciation of the Japanese currency.Satsuki Katayama said on Monday the government is ready to take decisive action against excessive FX volatility .The warning from Satsuki Katayama comes as the yen nears ¥160 per dollar, putting traders on alert for possible intervention by Japanese authorities. Meanwhile, The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates Thursday but maintain a rate-hike bias as a weak yen and rising oil prices lift inflation risks. Investors will watch Governor Kazuo Ueda’s post-meeting briefing for clues on the timing of the next rate hike and how the Bank of Japan balances supporting the economy and managing inflation risks. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.84(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.66(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 156.87 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European stocks ended higher on Monday, ending a three-session losing streak as investors reassessed the scale of the energy shock from the Persian Gulf.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.52 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.50 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.31 percent.
Wall Street closed sharply higher on Monday, driven by strength in AI-related stocks. Meta Platforms gained after reports that it is preparing for large-scale layoffs, while oil prices declined amid ongoing uncertainty over the Middle East conflict.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.83percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.01 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.22 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices slid about 3% on Monday after some vessels sailed through the critical Strait of Hormuz, even as U.S. allies rebuffed President Donald Trump's call for help in unblocking the strait, and as the head of the IEA suggested more reserves could be released to stem the rising costs caused by the Iran war.
Brent futures fell $2.93, or 2.8%, to settle at $100.21 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $5.21, or 5.3%, to settle at $93.50.
Gold prices edged lower on Monday, as worries that inflation linked to the Middle East conflict could keep interest rates elevated for longer outweighed support from a weaker dollar and safe-haven flows.
Spot gold fell 0.5% to $4,993.42 per ounce, by 1:31 p.m. ET (1731 GMT), after hitting its lowest level since February 19 earlier in the session.
U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled 1.2% lower at $5,002.20.
