Market Roundup
• UK CPI (YoY) (Feb): 3.0%, 3.0% forecast, 3.0% previous
• UK PPI Input (MoM) (Feb): 0.8%, 0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous
• UK CPI (MoM) (Feb): 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, -0.5% previous
• UK Core PPI Output (YoY) (Feb): 1.9%, 2.9% previous
• UK Core PPI Output (MoM) (Feb): -0.8%, 0.2% previous
• UK PPI Output (YoY) (Feb): 1.7%, 2.6% forecast, 2.5% previous
• UK PPI Output (MoM) (Feb): -0.5%, 0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
• UK PPI Input (YoY) (Feb): 0.5%, 0.4% forecast, -0.4% previous
• UK RPI (MoM) (Feb): 0.4%, 0.5% forecast, -0.5% previous
• UK RPI (YoY) (Feb): 3.6%, 3.7% forecast, 3.8% previous
• UK Core RPI (MoM) (Feb): 0.4%, -0.5% previous
• UK CPI, n.s.a (Feb): 140.10, 139.50 previous
• UK Core CPI (MoM) (Feb): 0.6%, 0.5% forecast, -0.6% previous
• UK Core RPI (YoY) (Feb): 3.5%, 3.7% previous
• German Business Expectations (Mar): 86.0, 86.0% forecast, 90.2 previous
• German Current Assessment (Mar): 86.7, 86.0% forecast, 86.7 previous
• German Ifo Business Climate Index (Mar): 86.4, 86.2% forecast, 88.4 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 14:00 Belgium NBB Business Climate (Mar) -14.8 forecast,-13.7 previous
• 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -1.300M forecast,6.156M previous
• 14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 0.944M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Production -0.462M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Imports -0.692M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•14:30 ECB Supervisory Board Member Tuominen Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower against the dollar on Wednesday as traders remained cautious over efforts by U.S. President Donald Trump to end the war with Iran. Trump said on Tuesday that progress was being made in negotiations, including securing a key concession from Tehran.However, Tehran denied any direct talks, with the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency quoting a military spokesperson as saying the U.S. is “negotiating with itself.”Uncertainty over whether and when oil exports from the Persian Gulf will resume, along with signs of economic damage from surging oil prices, has so far limited market reaction to Trump’s conciliatory stance.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1615(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1653 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1541(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1487(March 23rd low).
GBP/USD:The British pound weakened against the dollar on Wednesday as traders were cautious about efforts to end the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran as they took stock of the conflict's potential economic impact.Israel and Iran exchanged airstrikes on Wednesday, as Iran's military rejected U.S. President Donald Trump's assertion that Washington was in direct negotiations with Tehran to end the war.Meanwhile, British consumer price inflation held at 3% in February, unchanged from January's rate, official figures showed on Wednesday, ahead of a likely upward lurch as the war in the Middle East pushes up prices.Markets were last pricing in a roughly 67% chance of the BoE hiking rates at its next meeting in April, and were projecting at least two policy increases by the end of the year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3441(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3512(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3268(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3213(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dipped on Wednesday as the ongoing Middle East war dampened risk sentiment, even as easing hopes lingered. U.S. President Donald Trump delayed the bombing of Iran's power grid, a move that allayed fear of a prolonged war in the Middle East. A survey showed Australia's consumer confidence slid to its lowest level in more than half a century last week as rising borrowing costs and a spike in petrol prices darkened the economic outlook. Markets now believe a rate hike in May from the Reserve Bank of Australia is a toss-up after two consecutive rises this year. About 65 bps of tightening is priced in for the rest of 2026.Focus shifts to Wednesday’s Australia inflation report for guidance on monetary policy as geopolitical tensions persist. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7012(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7064(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6940(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6893(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Wednesday as the Japanese yen weakened following softer inflation data, which dampened expectations of further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.Japan’s core inflation fell below the 2% target in February for the first time in nearly four years, as fuel subsidies offset rising import costs driven by a weak yen and higher oil prices. Core-core inflation, which excludes fresh food and fuel and is closely monitored by the BOJ, rose 2.5% in February, easing slightly from 2.6% in January. Headline inflation slowed to 1.3% from 1.5%, largely due to a 9.1% decline in energy costs following the resumption of electricity and gas subsidies.The Bank of Japan ended its decade-long stimulus programme in 2024 and has raised rates in stages, including in December, as it judged that progress toward sustainably achieving its 2% inflation target was on track. Governor Kazuo Ueda has indicated the central bank is prepared to continue tightening if it becomes more confident that underlying, demand-driven inflation will stabilise around the 2% target. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.87(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.01(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 158.08 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European stock markets rose and oil prices declined on Wednesday, supported by optimism over U.S. efforts to secure a month-long ceasefire with Iran, despite Tehran rejecting the proposal.
At GMT (13:20) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 1.13 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.37 percent, France’s CAC was up by 1.14 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose over 1% on Wednesday, supported by falling oil prices that eased inflation concerns and rate hike expectations, despite ongoing Middle East uncertainty.
Spot gold was up 1.6% to $4,546.59 per ounce as of 9 a.m. EDT (1300 GMT) after hitting a four-month low on Monday. U.S. gold futures for April delivery jumped 3.3% to $4,545.40.
Oil prices plunged about 5% on Wednesday after reports that the United States had sent Iran a 15-point proposal aimed at ending the conflict, raising hopes of progress toward a ceasefire despite ongoing airstrikes between Israel and Iran.
Brent crude futures was down $6.08, or 5.82%, to $98.41 a barrel by 1200 GMT, off a session low of $97.57. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down $5.09, or 5.51%, at $87.26, off a low of $86.72.
