Market Roundup
• Greek Current Account (YoY) (Jan) -1.286B,-3.862B previous
•Spanish Trade Balance (Jan) -4.00B, -5.57B previous
•Belgium Consumer Confidence (Mar) -6, 1 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 14:00 US Construction Spending (MoM) (Jan) 0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
•14:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.353% previous
•14:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.108% previous
•14:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.199% previous
•15:00 EU Consumer Confidence (Mar) -15.0 forecast, -12.2 previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 3.610% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 3.570% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 16:00 EU ECB's Lane Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged high on Monday as dollar eased after Trump backed down on strikes on Iran's power network. President Donald Trump backed down on targeting Iran's power network on Monday, saying the U.S. and Iran have held constructive talks and that he would postpone any strikes on power plants and energy infrastructure.Trump's statement came after Iran threatened to attack Israel's power plants and those supplying U.S. bases across the Gulf region if the U.S. targets Iran's power network.Conversations with Iran will continue throughout the week, Trump said in a social media post. However, Iran's Fars news agency, citing a source, said there are no direct or indirect communications with the United States.The reaction from markets was swift and marked: Brent crude oil futures fell sharply, the dollar fell against other major currencies, stock markets rallied and government borrowing costs fell back.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1546(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1659 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1472(March 17th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1421(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound rounded from early decline on Monday as dollar weakened after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had asked the Department of Defense to postpone "any and all" military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days.Trump made the announcement on Truth Social just hours before a deadline he had set for Tehran to "fully open" the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to destroy Iranian power plants in a further escalation in a conflict now in its fourth week. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is set to hold an emergency meeting with senior ministers and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey later on Monday to discuss the response to the energy shock stemming from the war.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3373(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3417(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3260(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3208(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar recovered against the dollar on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had asked the Department of Defense to postpone "any and all" military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days.Trump made the announcement on Truth Social just hours before a deadline he had set for Tehran to "fully open" the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to destroy Iranian power plants in a further escalation in a conflict now in its fourth week.The Iranian embassy in Kabul said Trump was backing down from attacking Iranian energy infrastructure "after Iran's firm warning."Iran's FARS news agency cited a source saying there were neither direct nor indirect communications with the United States.Looking ahead, Australia’s February CPI data due Wednesday will be a key catalyst for shaping expectations around the RBA’s policy outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7012(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7064(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6940(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6893(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The US dollar dipped on Monday as escalating retaliatory threats in the Middle East conflict sent stocks tumbling and lifted demand for safe-haven assets.Trump issued his latest threat to Iran on Saturday, less than a day after signaling the U.S. might be considering winding down the conflict. Iran pledged retaliatory strikes on infrastructure in nearby countries and that the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane for oil would remain closed.The prospect of tit-for-tat strikes on civilian infrastructure in the region threatens the livelihoods of millions of people who rely on desalination plants for water. Japan’s top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura signaled caution about speculative activity in oil markets spilling over into foreign exchange. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.87(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.01(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 158.08 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European shares gained on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would delay any strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.58 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 2.15 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 1.76 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold trimmed earlier losses on Monday after Donald Trump said he would delay strikes on Iran’s power and energy infrastructure.
Spot gold was down 2.2% at $4,388.22 per ounce by 1230 GMT, extending losses into a ninth straight session. Before Trump's announcement, gold had fallen 8% at one point to a four-month low.
Oil prices plunged over 13% on Monday after Donald Trump said he would delay military strikes on Iranian power plants by five days, easing fears of further escalation in the fourth week of the conflict.
Brent crude futures traded at about $104.1 a barrel, or down 7.2%, at 1130 GMT after sliding as much as 15% to a session low of $96 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was down 7.8% at $90.55 after losing 13.5% to a session low of $85.28.
