FxWirePro: Derivatives trades to short exorbitant EUR/JPY skewness
Feb 17, 2017 06:36 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views
The EURJPY volatility surface is currently offering very attractive opportunities, as ATM volatility is rich and 6m/1y skews are excessively priced. Here, we recommend a couple of trades taking advantage of both the...
Feb 16, 2017 12:42 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Central Banks
EURCHF is so far tracking our forecast which assumes a softening in the SNBs intervention regime and a resultant orderly decline of around one cent per quarter in the cross to 1.03 by year-end. The SNB is certainly not...
Feb 16, 2017 12:18 pm UTC| Research & Analysis
USDCAD had a volatile month on mixed news flow and data, but ultimately positive signaling from Trump and a broadly weaker dollar pushed the pair to new lows since last September. While GDP, headline trade, and PMIs were...
Feb 16, 2017 06:37 am UTC| Research & Analysis
Euro and oil have adecent downside on a Le Pen victory: euro could fall about 10 cents (10%) to about 0.98 over a few weeks and oil could decline by 5-10%. In the remote scenario of a Le Pen Presidency with supportive...
Moody's: Two key constraints on Indonesia's government rating show signs of easing
Feb 16, 2017 02:44 am UTC| Research & Analysis
Moodys Investors Service says that Indonesia (Baa3 positive) is showing emerging signs of a reduction in structural constraints. In particular, the country has become less exposed to external vulnerabilities and policy...
FxWirePro: Not much Europe political risk priced into EM euro crosses – Outright trades for hedging
Feb 15, 2017 13:15 pm UTC| Research & Analysis
Despite being an underperformer in G10 in the past month, EUR still screens near fair value on this framework, indicating that little political risk is priced in ahead of the French elections. This is also consistent with...
FxWirePro: Why and how do swaptions render tail risks of French polls and EUR/USD?
Feb 15, 2017 12:59 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views
Well, the risks around the outcome of the Presidential French election needs to be analyzed in conjunction with the Parliamentary vote when you ponder over EURUSD risks. We believe that the political agenda of the newly...
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