FxWirePro: Stay short AUD/JPY through a one-touch calendar spread
Feb 14, 2017 12:16 pm UTC| Research & Analysis
We designed a bearish AUDJPY view through a calendar spread of one-touches (short a 3m one-touch put, long a 6m) to arrest the good-bad dichotomy in Trumps policy platform (an initial focus on pro-growth fiscal policy...
FxWirePro: Tactical upholding longs in USD/TWD via NDF derivatives
Feb 14, 2017 11:29 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views
We uphold longs in USDTWD 1m NDF at 30.777 with a target at 31.8 and a stop at 30.2. The 1m tenor is chosen because it has the highest annualized carry (positive carry of 32bp over a 1m horizon). The time horizon of the...
Feb 14, 2017 08:44 am UTC| Research & Analysis
GBP has been choppy but trendless this year on a messy interplay between Brexit politics and BoE expectations. Hopes that deterioration in the growth-inflation trade-off might prompt a rate hike as early as the end of...
Feb 13, 2017 12:05 pm UTC| Research & Analysis
EURCHF is so far tracking our forecast which assumes a softening in the SNBs intervention regime and a resultant orderly decline of around one cent per quarter in the cross to 1.03 by year-end. What has Switzerland to...
Feb 13, 2017 11:25 am UTC| Research & Analysis
Please be noted that the risk reversal flashes across all tenors, we see neutral changes to the bearish risk sentiments in 1m tenor but mounting bearish risk sentiments in 3m tenors, whereas Euro seems to be losing...
Feb 13, 2017 07:38 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views
Owning protection against European political discontent has been a key pillar of our bullish vol stance since late last year. Recent political developments in France and the implosion of what was considered to be a...
FxWirePro: How does Euro swap spread look ahead of French polls?
Feb 13, 2017 07:15 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views
French elections is priced more appropriately in bonds (but not in currencies) than going into the Brexit and US vote. In the remote scenario of a Le Pen Presidency with supportive government and Parliament, 10Y Bunds...
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